UAE carriers ramp up capacity amid continued uncertainty over Iran conflict.
The US-Iran conflict continues to affect aviation and shipping across the Gulf, although signs of recovery are beginning to emerge in the UAE’s travel sector as airlines restore capacity and passenger demand gradually returns despite ongoing security concerns.
The latest industry data, however, present a mixed picture, with recovery in some areas while disruption and uncertainty continue in others.
Emirates said passenger bookings have recovered strongly following the disruption, with the airline operating at 93 per cent of its pre-war capacity during July and August and carrying more than 8.6 million passengers over the period.
Demand is also gaining momentum for the winter season, with bookings strengthening across several routes. Meanwhile, Dubai Airports expects to handle around 70 million passengers this year, pointing to a continued recovery in travel demand.
Etihad Airways has similarly reported a rebound in operations.
Etihad Airways’ available seat kilometres are running 15 to 17 per cent above last year’s levels, while its load factor reached 92 per cent in August. The airline expects to maintain a load factor of more than 87 per cent for the remainder of the year.
Disruptions continue
Despite signs of recovery across the UAE’s aviation sector, disruptions have not completely eased.
More than 170 flights were delayed at Dubai International Airport and Zayed International Airport on September 13, according to FlightAware data.
Two flydubai flights operating between Dubai and Bahrain were cancelled, highlighting that some disruption continues across the region.
Airlines have cautioned, however, that not every cancellation or delay can be attributed directly to the conflict. Technical issues, weather conditions and air-traffic-control restrictions can also affect individual flights.
Travel demand can rebound sharply
Abdul Wahab Teffaha, Secretary General of the Arab Air Carriers Organisation, said the Middle East’s aviation industry has demonstrated its ability to recover from major disruptions in the past, including wars, financial crises and other significant shocks.
Teffaha said he has witnessed 27 wars since joining the aviation industry in 1980, noting that periods when people are unable or reluctant to travel are often followed by a sharp rebound in demand once restrictions ease and confidence returns.
“When they are confined or feel like they are trapped in a situation, what will happen is that immediately after that, there is a spike,” he said.
He also argued that travel and tourism should no longer be viewed simply as discretionary luxuries, but as an increasingly important part of modern economic and social life.
His assessment reflects patterns seen during previous major disruptions, including the Covid-19 pandemic, when travel demand recovered as restrictions were lifted.
Why UAE travellers still face uncertainty
Despite signs of recovery, regional airspace restrictions and security concerns remain key sources of uncertainty for travellers.
Airlines serving the UAE continue to adjust their schedules in response to developments across the Gulf, while some international carriers have maintained flight suspensions or reduced services to the region.
The conflict is also putting pressure on fuel costs, one of the aviation industry’s biggest expenses. Brent crude has climbed above $107 a barrel amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Emirates said it has some protection against higher fuel prices through its fuel-hedging strategy and is working to minimise the impact of rising costs on airfares.
Wider regional risks
Security concerns also extend beyond aviation. Saudi Arabia said its air defences intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered the city’s prohibited airspace.
The Saudi-led coalition described the security of Mecca and other holy sites as a “red line”, while the Houthis denied that Mecca had been the intended target.
Meanwhile, the US blockade of Iranian ports has sharply reduced Tehran’s oil exports, adding further pressure to regional energy markets and shipping activity.
TankerTrackers said Iranian crude exports have effectively dropped to zero, while US Central Command said the blockade is focused on shipping connected to Iranian ports rather than commercial navigation more broadly.
Rebuilding connectivity
For UAE residents, the situation has created a two-speed travel environment. Major aviation hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi are steadily restoring connectivity and experiencing strong passenger demand, while routes closer to conflict zones remain exposed to last-minute cancellations, diversions and changing airspace restrictions.
Travellers are advised to check the latest flight status with their airline and departure airport shortly before travelling, particularly when flying to or through Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and other destinations affected by the conflict.
