Eastern and southern UAE to receive most rainfall as unstable weather continues.
The UAE is expected to experience rainy conditions in the coming days, with the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) forecasting afternoon showers despite temperatures continuing to remain above 40°C.
The NCM said unstable weather conditions will continue from today until Monday, August 3, with convective rain clouds developing over eastern and western parts of the country during the afternoons. These conditions are expected to bring chances of rainfall across several days during the forecast period.
Eastern and southern parts of the UAE are expected to experience the most persistent cloud activity and highest chances of rainfall as the unsettled weather pattern continues.
Areas typically affected include parts of Fujairah, Sharjah’s east coast, and the interior and southern regions of Abu Dhabi. Elsewhere, skies are expected to remain fair to partly cloudy, with conditions generally stable outside the areas seeing cloud formation.
The changing weather pattern is being driven by an extension of a surface low-pressure system from the east, combined with an upper-air low-pressure system. This combination is creating favourable conditions for the development of convective clouds, increasing the likelihood of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Hot days, stormy afternoons
Despite the possibility of rain, high temperatures will continue across the UAE. During the forecast period, temperatures are expected to reach:
- 43°C to 48°C inland
- 38°C to 44°C along coastal areas
- 30°C to 38°C in mountainous regions
The weather is expected to remain hot during the day, with some areas experiencing increased cloud activity and possible storms in the afternoons.
Winds are expected to add another element of uncertainty to the weather pattern. Light to moderate south-easterly to north-easterly winds of 10 to 25 km/h are forecast, with occasional strengthening to around 45 km/h inland and 35 km/h in coastal and mountainous areas.
As convective clouds develop, stronger winds could trigger dust and sand activity, temporarily reducing visibility in some exposed locations.
Sea conditions are expected to remain slight in both the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman throughout the forecast period.
Dusty conditions are also likely on several days, particularly Thursday and Monday, when stronger gusts combined with cloud activity may lift dust and sand, affecting visibility in some areas.
What to expect each day
Friday: Afternoon convective clouds are expected to develop over the eastern and southern regions, bringing a chance of rainfall. Winds will be south-easterly to north-easterly and may strengthen at times, reaching around 40 km/h, while sea conditions remain slight.
Saturday: Conditions will remain fair to partly cloudy, with clouds expected to develop over eastern and southern areas during the afternoon. Winds will shift from south-easterly to north-westerly, reaching 10 to 20 km/h and occasionally gusting up to 30 km/h. Sea conditions will remain slight.
Sunday: Similar weather conditions are expected, with afternoon convective clouds likely to form again over eastern and southern regions. South-easterly winds turning north-westerly may reach up to 30 km/h, while seas remain calm.
Monday: The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue, with another chance of afternoon convective clouds and rainfall over eastern and southern areas. South-easterly to north-easterly winds may strengthen to 40 km/h, potentially lifting dust in exposed locations. Sea conditions will remain slight.
Moderate El Niño develops
The rain-producing weather pattern comes as El Niño conditions strengthen globally. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast a 98 per cent probability of El Niño conditions continuing from July to November 2026, following a rise in sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific above the threshold used to officially classify the phenomenon.
The NCM’s latest seasonal outlook shows the current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index at 1.2°C, placing the climate pattern within the moderate El Niño category. The UAE closely monitors this region, as it serves as a key indicator of potential changes in the country’s weather patterns.
Looking ahead, the NCM expects temperatures and rainfall across the UAE to remain near or above seasonal averages between August and December. The influence of the pattern is expected to become more noticeable towards the end of the forecast period.
