Several regions brace for heavy to torrential rainfall, with temperatures expected to climb 2°C above seasonal averages.
Dubai: Saudi Arabia is forecast to receive above-average rainfall between November 2026 and January 2027, with some regions potentially experiencing extremely heavy downpours. Temperatures are also expected to remain above seasonal averages across the Kingdom, according to the National Centre for Meteorology (NCM).
The NCM’s seasonal climate outlook suggests that rainfall could range from moderate to extremely heavy across several parts of the country, particularly during November. Average surface temperatures are also forecast to remain higher than normal throughout the three-month period.
November: Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall expected
The NCM said November could bring above-average rainfall to the Northern Borders region, as well as parts of Qassim, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Mecca.
Rainfall across these areas is forecast to range from heavy to very heavy, with some locations potentially experiencing extremely heavy downpours, based on projected deviations from long-term climatic averages.
Parts of Tabuk, Al Jouf, Hail, Al Baha, Asir and Najran are also expected to record above-average rainfall, with precipitation levels ranging from moderate to heavy and potentially very heavy.
December: Rainfall expected to shift towards southern regions
Above-average rainfall is forecast to continue in December across Jazan, Asir, Al Baha and Najran, along with parts of Mecca, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and the Northern Borders region.
Rainfall levels are expected to range from moderate to heavy compared with normal seasonal conditions.
January 2027: Wet weather likely to continue
The NCM expects above-average rainfall to persist in January 2027 across Jazan, Al Baha, Asir, Mecca, Najran, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Qassim, as well as parts of Medina and the Northern Borders region.
Precipitation is forecast to range from moderate to heavy, based on projected deviations from seasonal averages.
Temperatures forecast to rise up to 2°C above normal
Alongside the rainfall outlook, the NCM expects surface temperatures to remain above seasonal averages across all regions of Saudi Arabia throughout the three-month period.
The most significant increase could reach approximately 2°C above normal in parts of Asir, Najran and Riyadh.
The centre said its rainfall and temperature classifications are based on projected deviations from long-term climatic averages, highlighting how expected weather conditions may differ from typical seasonal patterns.
