Hormuz Tensions, Oil Volatility and Flight Risks: Is This the New Normal for the Region?
As the US-Iran war enters its seventh month, President Donald Trump has again sought to underline the strength of the US military arsenal, saying Washington has virtually “unlimited” supplies of ammunition for its campaign against Iran.
His comments come amid reports that the pace of the conflict has put pressure on US stocks of certain weapons, prompting the Pentagon to work on increasing production.
Washington’s Message
The message from Washington is that the US is prepared to sustain military operations to achieve its objectives in Iran, including curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and ending disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
For residents of the UAE, however, the conflict is being felt less through direct fighting and more through disruptions to air travel, shipping risks, heightened regional security concerns and fluctuations in oil prices.
Key Developments So Far
Iran Economy ‘Buckling’ Under Extended Sanctions and Naval Blockade: Report
Iran has endured years of US sanctions by developing ways to circumvent restrictions and keep trade flowing. But Washington is now combining sanctions with a naval blockade, and Iran’s economic defences are reportedly beginning to weaken.
Iranian officials say both exports and imports have fallen by around 35%, while inflation is approaching 70%.
The Iranian rial has also fallen to record lows, adding to pressure on households and businesses. Tehran’s oil exports have reportedly dropped sharply, from around 1.7 million barrels per day to roughly 260,000 barrels per day under what has been described as President Donald Trump’s three-pronged strategy.
The US three-pronged strategy — combining military strikes, sanctions and a naval blockade — is beginning to have a “more visible economic impact” inside Iran, according to Reuters, citing three senior Iranian sources.
The sharp decline in oil exports could prove particularly significant. While Iran has developed ways to evade sanctions, physically disrupting the movement of oil is far more difficult to circumvent.
For years, Tehran has relied on shadow fleets, intermediaries, ship-to-ship transfers and China as a key buyer of its oil. But if tankers are unable to move, Iran could lose the foreign currency it needs to pay for imports, support the rial and keep its economy functioning.
Iran Blockade: 86 Iran-Linked Ships ‘Redirected’
The blockade is also affecting shipping activity, with 86 Iran-linked vessels reportedly redirected as pressure on maritime trade intensifies.
The US Navy is enforcing a maritime blockade around Iran’s ports as part of Washington’s broader campaign to restrict Tehran’s ability to export oil and import military supplies. US Central Command (CentCom) said the Navy is enforcing the blockade and conducting compliance checks on commercial vessels operating in the Gulf and Arabian Sea.
As of September 2, CentCom reported:
- 86 commercial vessels had been redirected away from Iranian ports.
- Three vessels had been disabled during enforcement operations.
- Two vessels had been boarded for cargo and destination checks.
The figures represent an increase from late August, when CentCom reported that between 71 and 83 vessels had been redirected. The number of vessels disabled and boarded remained unchanged at three and two, respectively.
More than 40 vessels carrying humanitarian cargo had been permitted to pass through the blockade zone as of late August.
Rubio Raises Another Warning: Sanctions
The conflict is also extending into the economic sphere. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that countries helping Iran circumvent American sanctions could themselves face penalties.
Rubio said Washington would not object to countries pursuing their own foreign policies or maintaining diplomatic contacts with Tehran. However, he warned against assisting Iran in establishing mechanisms to generate revenue that the US believes could support terrorism or advance Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran Says It Hit US Bases, Ships; Washington Disputes Some Claims
Iran has continued to claim attacks on US military positions in the region, but Washington has disputed some of the allegations. A US defence official denied at least one recent Iranian claim that an American base had been struck.
US Central Command also rejected an IRGC claim that two naval mines had struck a crude oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, September 1, calling the allegation false.
On the other hand, US Central Command reported that it had escorted 40 vessels carrying a record 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, even as US-Iran strikes intensified again on September 1.
The conflicting accounts highlight one of the most challenging aspects of the conflict: information emerging from the battlefield is increasingly disputed, making it difficult to independently verify some claims.
Rely on Official UAE Authorities
For UAE residents, this makes it especially important to rely on official UAE authorities, airlines and established news organisations for updates. Unverified social-media posts, memes and videos can quickly spread misleading or outdated information, particularly during periods of heightened regional tensions.
The UAE has previously rejected Iranian claims that Al Minhad Air Base was targeted.
Oil Prices
Oil prices softened briefly on Friday morning before recovering, as markets continued to assess developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude fell 1.30% to $95.52 a barrel at 7:44am Tokyo time on Friday, amid reports that more oil tankers were transiting the Strait of Hormuz under US military escort and that Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping had been weakened. Brent subsequently recovered, reaching $95.69 a barrel by 11:58am Tokyo time.
Murban crude was also down 1.30% at $104.70 a barrel, while WTI rose 0.89% to $92.11 a barrel.
Higher crude prices can boost revenues for oil-producing countries and support the broader energy sector. However, Iran is an exception as the naval blockade is restricting its ability to export oil.
However, prolonged instability can also drive up transportation, insurance and commodity costs, creating wider economic pressures across the region.
Hormuz Remains the Big Risk
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and recent fighting has significantly disrupted shipping traffic through the waterway.
For the UAE, the issue is particularly sensitive because Fujairah offers a strategic alternative to routes through Hormuz. The emirate is home to major oil infrastructure that allows some crude exports to bypass the strait.
However, the wider Gulf economy cannot completely shield itself from the effects of a prolonged disruption. Extended uncertainty around shipping could continue to affect trade, energy prices, insurance costs and regional business activity.
UAE Flights Adjust to Regional Airspace and Security Conditions
Airlines operating from the UAE continue to adjust their schedules as regional airspace restrictions and security conditions evolve.
Emirates, Etihad Airways, flydubai and Air Arabia have all announced cancellations, suspensions or schedule changes during the latest escalation, while several international carriers have also adjusted their Middle East operations.
For passengers, the practical advice remains straightforward:
- Check directly with your airline before leaving for the airport.
- Reconfirm your flight status shortly before travelling.
- Allow extra time at the airport in case of delays or changes.
A flight that was showing as scheduled several hours earlier can still be delayed, rerouted or cancelled as airlines respond to changes in airspace restrictions and security conditions.
