The Allianz survey indicates a strong outlook as firms adapt to emerging risks.
Dubai: Companies across the UAE and global markets remain optimistic about export growth in 2026, even as the Middle East conflict reshapes financial conditions and alters risk dynamics in global trade.
The latest Allianz Trade Global Survey, which covered 6,000 firms across 13 markets in February and March, shows that more than seven in ten companies remain optimistic about export performance this year. This resilience reflects steady demand and businesses’ ability to adapt to changing conditions following last year’s trade disruptions.
“The survey reveals that 75% of exporters continue to expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the Middle East conflict appears moderate, especially compared to the 2025 tariff shock, when expectations dropped by 40 percentage points,” said Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
Confidence remains intact, although companies are adjusting to an evolving risk environment.
Payment dynamics evolving
Trade finance conditions are becoming more complex, with companies experiencing longer payment cycles and placing greater emphasis on cash flow management.
Fewer firms are receiving payments within 30 days, while extended settlement timelines are becoming increasingly common. Many companies expect payment terms to continue shifting, reflecting a more cautious approach to global trade.
Expectations of non-payment risk have also risen, with sectors such as pharmaceuticals, construction, and technology facing higher exposure. Larger firms, in particular, are managing longer payment cycles, often linked to the complexity of global supply chains.
“Still, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict persists,” Coqui said.
UAE outlook remains strong
The UAE continues to stand out as one of the most confident global trade hubs, supported by robust infrastructure and diversified trade connections.
Although risk perceptions have increased, the overall outlook remains firmly anchored in the country’s role as a key gateway for regional and international trade.
Businesses are adopting a balanced approach—some are advancing diversification and reshoring strategies, while others are pacing investments in response to evolving conditions.
This reflects a market making measured decisions, with companies aligning their strategies to balance both opportunity and risk.
Supply chains adapt
Companies are strengthening operational resilience through improved inventory management and expansion into new markets, both of which have become widely adopted strategies.
Sourcing from new suppliers and rerouting shipments are also gaining momentum, helping businesses maintain continuity and flexibility.
“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers,” said Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.
Operational adjustments are taking priority, with companies focusing on logistics, delivery timelines, and customs processes to keep trade flows moving efficiently.
Growth opportunities widen
Exporters are also expanding their focus when it comes to future growth markets.
Europe and Asia are gaining traction, supported by stable demand and new trade agreements that are opening up fresh opportunities.
“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements,” said Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
India, Brazil, Vietnam, and France are emerging as key markets, even as companies continue to navigate regulatory requirements that affect the pace of expansion.
The survey reflects a global trade environment where demand remains strong, with companies adapting their strategies to manage evolving risks.
Exporters are planning for growth while also strengthening financial discipline and supply chain resilience.
The outlook for UAE businesses remains supported by strong fundamentals, with adaptability and strategic planning shaping how companies move forward in the months ahead.
