Global fuel prices climb as supply shocks ripple through major economies.
Dubai: UAE motorists head into April’s fuel price announcement following a year marked by declining pump costs, a recent uptick, and renewed global volatility that may influence the next pricing move.
Over the past 12 months, fuel prices in the UAE have trended downward, with consistent monthly declines throughout 2025 mirroring softer global crude benchmarks. Prices hit their lowest point in early 2026 before rising slightly in March, indicating a modest rebound and a potential shift towards stabilisation.
How fuel prices are set in the UAE
Fuel prices in the UAE are closely tied to global markets. Since deregulation in 2015, pump rates have been revised monthly instead of being fixed by the government.
Each month, the UAE Fuel Price Committee determines prices based on average international crude and refined fuel costs. Benchmarks such as Murban are factored into the calculation, but only as part of wider global pricing trends rather than serving as a sole driver.
For motorists, this means local fuel prices generally move in line with global oil cycles, often with a slight lag reflecting monthly averages.
Where global oil stands now
Global oil markets have turned volatile once again. The conflict involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early March triggered a sharp supply shock, sending Brent crude surging by more than 50% in a single month to nearly $120 per barrel.
That spike has since eased in parts of the market. Murban crude, a key UAE benchmark, has stabilised at around $115 per barrel after jumping to as high as $152, broadly tracking global trends and easing immediate upward pressure.
However, supply risks persist. The International Energy Agency has described the disruption as one of the largest on record, with emergency reserves being deployed in an effort to stabilise global markets.
How the UAE compares globally
The UAE’s pricing model places it among liberalised markets, where retail fuel prices adjust quickly to global shifts. This contrasts with countries that regulate prices or rely on subsidies to cushion consumers.
Sharp increases seen globally:
- Philippines: Diesel prices up by over 80%
- Nigeria: Nearly 80% increase amid supply shortages
- Australia: Diesel prices up by more than 50%
- United States: Diesel prices above $5 per gallon
More stable markets:
- Countries with subsidies or price controls have seen relatively smaller increases, as governments absorb part of the cost to shield consumers.
- Saudi Arabia: Prices remain unchanged due to regulation
- India: No increase following tax cuts and state intervention
- China: Price rises limited through export controls
These differences highlight how quickly global price shocks are passed on to consumers. In the UAE, adjustments tend to be more immediate compared to heavily subsidised or regulated markets.
How much will fuel prices rise?
The outlook for April hinges on a key factor: the global average price window used by the UAE Fuel Price Committee.
- The earlier surge in global oil prices could push rates higher
- Stabilisation around $115 per barrel may help limit any increase
- Ongoing volatility adds uncertainty to the final calculation
For motorists, this creates a relatively narrow range of outcomes. Prices could edge up modestly, continue to stabilise, or remain close to March levels depending on how late-month averages settle.
