Prices continue to fluctuate — dips could present better buying opportunities next month.
Dubai: Gold prices in the UAE have seen a sharp shift over the past month, falling from early March highs to noticeably lower levels that are now attracting renewed buyer interest.
At the beginning of the month, 24-karat gold was priced above Dh640 per gram, while 22-karat stood close to Dh590. However, those levels did not last.
Prices underwent a sharp correction through mid-March, with 24K falling into the Dh520–Dh550 range and 22K slipping to around Dh500. The move signaled a clear reset after an extended rally.
Analysts say the drop was driven by heavy profit-taking after gold rose well above its long-term averages—a pattern commonly seen following strong rallies.
Stable, no clear direction
In the second half of March, the pace of declines eased, with prices moving in tighter ranges instead of continuing downward.
Recent trading shows 24K largely between Dh528 and Dh545, while 22K has held between Dh488 and Dh505. The movement has been uneven, with brief rebounds followed by pullbacks—suggesting the market is trying to stabilise rather than push higher.
Industry experts say the market is shifting from a correction phase toward a gradual recovery, although mixed global signals continue to keep momentum uncertain.
What is driving gold now
Global macro factors continue to shape price movements.
Gold has come under pressure as rising oil prices stoke inflation concerns, increasing expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. This typically weighs on bullion, which does not generate yield.
India-based LKP Securities said sentiment remains cautious, with macro triggers still pointing to elevated interest rates and capping upside unless there is clearer direction on inflation and geopolitical risks.
At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have provided intermittent support for gold, sparking short-term rebounds but not enough to sustain a broader rally.
Gold prices to drop again?
Any further downside is likely to be driven by the same factors behind the recent correction.
If oil prices stay elevated, inflation concerns persist, and bond yields remain firm, gold could come under renewed pressure. A stronger dollar would add to that trend.
Prices could also weaken if geopolitical tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand. Recent movements suggest that rallies driven by uncertainty have been short-lived.
That said, the sharp drop earlier in the month has already cleared much of the excess from the rally. Any further declines are likely to be more gradual, with prices easing lower rather than falling steeply.
When should you buy?
For buyers in Dubai, current prices are lower than earlier in the month, but timing remains crucial.
Recent trading patterns show that buying interest has consistently appeared near the lower end of the range — around Dh530–Dh535 for 24K and Dh490–Dh495 for 22K. Meanwhile, prices have struggled to hold above Dh545 and Dh505 respectively.
A Dubai-based investment analyst says a “selective buy-on-dips strategy near stable levels” remains the preferred approach in the current market.
This reflects the broader trend: prices are not moving in a clear upward direction, so chasing short-term rebounds may carry more risk than waiting for dips.
Gold seen rising long term
Despite the recent decline, some institutions still see significant upside over the long term, making current prices relatively attractive for buyers.
US investment bank Wells Fargo has raised its 2026 global gold price forecast to $6,100–$6,300 per ounce, up sharply from its previous $4,500–$4,700 range, citing expectations of lower interest rates and gold’s role as a hedge against policy uncertainty.
This longer-term outlook suggests the recent pullback may not mark the end of the broader trend, even as short-term volatility continues.
What buyers should watch
For now, Dubai gold buyers face a market that is cheaper but still unsettled.
Prices have eased from peak levels, providing more attractive entry points, but volatility remains elevated. The next significant move will depend on global factors, especially interest rate expectations, currency strength, and geopolitical developments.
Until a clearer trend forms, the market is likely to stay range-bound, with the best buying opportunities arising during short-term dips rather than brief rallies.
