Iran’s blockade traps 10 million barrels per day, while Saudi and UAE bypass routes reach their limits, sending crude to $112.
Dubai: As tensions build in the Gulf, a familiar question comes up again—why not bypass the Strait of Hormuz altogether? The answer lies in the massive scale, which makes alternatives far harder than they appear.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil—about one-fifth of global supply—pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, making it the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. As the U.S. Energy Information Administration notes, “some chokepoints have no practical alternatives.”
The dependence becomes even more pronounced at the producer level. Major Gulf exporters—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE—rely heavily on the strait for seaborne shipments, leaving them with limited flexibility when disruptions occur.
New routes won’t eliminate the risk
A single supertanker can carry roughly 2 million barrels of oil. Replacing just one such shipment would require about 10,000 trucks—turning any land-based alternative into a massive logistical challenge.
Scale that up to the daily volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and the numbers quickly become impractical: hundreds of thousands of trucks, long-haul routes, and significant fuel consumption just to move equivalent volumes of oil.
Air transport is even less viable. Large cargo aircraft can carry only a small fraction of a tanker’s volume, making the cost prohibitively high and the logistics impractical for moving bulk crude.
Pipelines can’t replace Hormuz
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have invested heavily in bypass routes to reduce reliance on the strait. While these pipelines offer some flexibility, they carry only a fraction of total export volumes.
Even at full capacity, they fall far short of replacing the roughly 20 million barrels per day that transit Hormuz. As the International Energy Agency notes, “available capacity on alternative export routes is limited,” underscoring why most flows still depend on maritime shipping.
Pipelines also face operational constraints. Crude requires continuous pumping over long distances, supported by multiple stations that can become vulnerable points of failure during disruptions.
A $200B idea that keeps resurfacing
The concept of bypassing Hormuz via a new sea route is not new. A Saudi-backed study once proposed a 950-kilometre canal linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea, cutting through Saudi Arabia and Yemen—potentially reducing shipping distances by nearly half.
The പദ്ധ envisioned a 150-metre-wide, 25-metre-deep channel capable of allowing Gulf producers—including the UAE and Qatar—to export oil without transiting Hormuz.
It also pointed to broader economic ambitions, including new coastal developments and industrial zones along the route. However, the proposal acknowledged significant engineering challenges, particularly terrain rising up to 700 metres above sea level, which would make construction highly complex.
A canal still doesn’t solve the problem
The constraints remain largely unchanged. Building a canal through mountainous terrain would require years of excavation and enormous capital. Even if completed, it would likely create another narrow transit corridor—one that could be blocked by a single stranded vessel or become a target during conflict.
Recent disruptions to global shipping have shown how vulnerable such chokepoints can be even in peacetime, reinforcing concerns that a canal would simply shift the risk rather than eliminate it.
History shows escorts aren’t enough
The region has faced similar threats before. During the Tanker War, the United States Navy escorted oil shipments through the Gulf. Despite those efforts, vessels were still struck by missiles and mines, including incidents involving U.S. warships and escorted tankers.
Recent developments show how quickly disruption can return. As reported by Reuters, tensions in the region have “rattled markets and choked trade,” with some shipments delayed rather than rerouted.
Analysts note that modern threats—including drones and precision-guided weapons—have expanded the range of risks facing both vessels and fixed infrastructure.
No real substitute—for now
Despite pipelines, rerouting efforts, and repeated mega-project proposals, the core reality remains unchanged. Most of the world’s oil still depends on the narrow, 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz.
That is why, even today, there is no fast or scalable alternative—only partial solutions to a structural constraint that continues to shape global energy markets.
