US and IEA release strategic reserves, but Mideast tensions continue to push oil prices up.
Global oil prices surge amid Middle East tensions
Global oil prices rallied early Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery closing at $94.23 per barrel as of 11:56 GMT Wednesday (8:56 am Tokyo, March 12), marking an 8% daily spike amid growing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude rose nearly 5% to $91.98 per barrel, up $4.18.
The latest rally highlights a volatile year for crude oil amid ongoing tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
Murban crude slips despite rally in other benchmarks
Murban crude for May 2026 delivery fell 1.17% to $98.41 per barrel as of 00:19 GMT Thursday (March 12), according to oilprice.com live data.
Prices that had hovered between $70 and $80 per barrel in mid-2025 dropped to nearly $50 by December 2025, as markets anticipated a massive supply glut driven by rising production in the United States and Brazil.
At the time, analysts warned that global oil output could exceed demand by 3–4 million barrels per day, which would push prices lower.
Outlook flips
Since January, however, the market’s outlook has shifted dramatically. Oil prices began a steady climb, surpassing $100 per barrel by March amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Traders pointed to the intensifying confrontation between the United States and Iran and disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
The US-Israel-Iran conflict has disrupted tanker movements through the Strait, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supplies, contributing to heightened crude price volatility.
Any prolonged disruption in this narrow passage could remove millions of barrels of oil from the global supply, adding further pressure to markets.
Forecast for 2026
Futures markets amplified the recent surge, with analysts pointing to a historic short squeeze as traders rushed to cover bearish positions.
In a single session, crude prices jumped nearly $12, underscoring the market’s extreme volatility.
Overnight Thursday, the US Energy Department announced the release of 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, following an earlier International Energy Agency (IEA) decision to release 400 million barrels from members’ strategic reserves.
Forecasts for the rest of 2026 remain divided
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects prices to ease later in the year as supply routes normalize and US production rises to around 13.6 million barrels per day. Investment banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, project average prices closer to $52–$56, assuming global supply remains sufficient.
If Middle East disruptions persist…
Analysts warn that if tensions in the Middle East continue, oil could trade between $90 and $110 per barrel, with extreme scenarios pushing prices even higher.
For now, the market has swung from fears of oversupply to concerns about shortages, highlighting how quickly geopolitics can reshape global energy markets — and in turn, the prices of goods and services worldwide.
