Analysts say Brent could stay above $90 a barrel if tougher US sanctions curb Iranian oil exports or further disrupt shipping.
The UAE is set to announce its revised petrol and diesel prices for September 2026 next week, with motorists potentially facing a modest increase as global oil prices remain elevated amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Brent crude averaged around $87.70 a barrel in August, up from $83.46 in July. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with disruptions involving energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have kept Brent prices largely in the $80–$90 range during the first three and a half weeks of August. Recent trading has pushed Brent above $90, highlighting continued volatility in the oil market.
The UAE increased petrol prices by around Dh0.20 per litre in August 2026, following higher global crude prices in July amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Under the revised rates, Super 98 was priced at Dh3.60 per litre, Special 95 at Dh3.49 and E-Plus 91 at Dh3.41.
On Tuesday morning, Brent crude was trading at $91.18 a barrel, while WTI stood at $84.13, both slightly lower.
Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said oil prices are being driven primarily by uncertainty over physical supply rather than weak demand.
“Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, leaving the market highly sensitive to developments affecting Iranian exports, regional shipping routes and refinery access,” he said. As a result, oil prices could fall sharply if tensions ease but are likely to remain supported while crude supplies and transportation capacity remain constrained.
US President Donald Trump has announced fresh sanctions against Iran and warned of cutting economic ties with countries that continue to cooperate with Tehran.
Aslam said Brent could remain above $90 a barrel if tougher sanctions further reduce Iranian exports or disrupt shipping. However, a diplomatic breakthrough and the normalisation of tanker traffic could quickly reduce the additional risk premium in oil prices.
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, noted that around 40 tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night, carrying nearly 16 million barrels of oil, providing some short-term relief to supply concerns.
However, he said overall flows remain significantly below normal. Rising tensions around the Strait, combined with tougher US sanctions on Iran and its trading partners, particularly major oil buyers such as China, continue to raise supply risks and could provide further support to crude prices.
With global oil prices remaining elevated, UAE retail fuel prices could see a modest increase in September. The official petrol and diesel rates are expected to be announced on Monday.
