Brent’s October surge and rising global energy costs signal another possible increase in fuel prices.
Dubai: The UAE is set to announce petrol and diesel prices for November today, with motorists potentially facing another increase following a sharp rise in international crude oil prices throughout October. Brent crude has surged close to the $120-a-barrel mark, adding to concerns over higher fuel costs.
The announcement comes amid continued volatility in global energy markets, with oil prices extending their gains on Friday as traders weighed mounting supply concerns in the Middle East and disruptions to international shipments.
Brent crude futures for December delivery climbed $2.92, or 2.54%, to $117.80 a barrel in late Friday trading. The more actively traded January contract rose $3.04 to $113.84. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.66, or 2.61%, to reach $104.66 a barrel.
According to Reuters, Brent crude was on track to record a monthly gain of nearly 13% in October, while WTI was heading towards a 14% increase. The sustained rally in global oil prices could translate into higher fuel costs for UAE motorists in November. However, the extent of any increase will become clear only when the country’s official fuel rates are announced.
How much are motorists paying now?
October’s fuel prices are set at Dh4.40 per litre for Super 98, Dh4.28 for Special 95 and Dh4.21 for E-Plus 91. Diesel is priced at Dh4.80 per litre.
These rates reflect significant month-on-month increases compared with September, with Super 98 rising by 15.8%, Special 95 by 16% and E-Plus 91 by 16.6%. Diesel prices also climbed by 11.6%.
For motorists filling a 60-litre tank, the current cost of Special 95 stands at Dh256.80, up from Dh221.40 in September. The same fill-up costs Dh264 for Super 98 and Dh252.60 for E-Plus 91.
Why global oil prices matter for November
The UAE reviews domestic fuel prices every month, taking international energy-market movements into account. As a result, October’s sharp rise in crude oil prices could play a significant role in determining November’s rates.
Brent crude has recorded substantial gains since the beginning of October, driven by concerns over oil supplies from the Middle East and rising transportation costs. Disruptions to shipping routes have pushed freight costs higher and complicated crude shipments across the region, despite efforts by Gulf producers to maintain export flows.
The latest rally has brought Brent close to $120 a barrel, highlighting the continued pressure on international energy markets. However, changes in crude prices do not translate directly into equivalent increases at UAE petrol stations. Refined fuel prices and the broader monthly pricing benchmark also factor into the final decision.
Could petrol prices surpass their previous record?
Despite October’s steep increase, UAE petrol prices remain below the all-time highs recorded in July 2022.
Super 98 reached Dh4.63 per litre during that period, while Special 95 peaked at Dh4.52 and E-Plus 91 at Dh4.44.
Compared with those records, current Super 98 and E-Plus 91 prices are 23 fils lower per litre, while Special 95 is 24 fils below its previous peak.
For November prices to surpass the July 2022 records, Super 98 and E-Plus 91 would need to increase by more than 23 fils per litre. Special 95 would require a rise of more than 24 fils.
Note: The recent surge in international oil prices raises the prospect of another increase, but it remains uncertain whether UAE petrol prices will exceed their previous records.
How much could another increase add to motorists’ bills?
Even a modest increase in per-litre prices could add to monthly fuel expenses, particularly for motorists who regularly fill larger tanks.
A 60-litre fill of Special 95 currently costs Dh256.80. If prices rise by 10 fils per litre in November, the same fill-up would cost an additional Dh6. A 20-fils increase would add Dh12.
For motorists purchasing around 240 litres of petrol every month, each 10-fils-per-litre increase would translate into an additional Dh24 in monthly spending, assuming consumption remains unchanged.
Note: These figures are illustrative calculations and should not be interpreted as forecasts of November’s official fuel prices.
What should motorists expect from today’s announcement?
October’s strong rally in international oil prices points to the possibility of another increase in UAE petrol and diesel rates for November.
Brent’s monthly gains, its approach towards $120 a barrel and continued uncertainty over Middle East oil shipments have all added pressure to global energy costs.
However, motorists will have to wait for the official announcement to know whether these developments will result in higher pump prices and how much they could add to their monthly fuel bills.
Note: November’s fuel prices will be determined by the UAE’s monthly pricing review, which considers broader market trends rather than crude oil prices on a single trading day.
