Airfares set to rise by up to 20% in Europe as US holiday fares hit decade highs.
Dubai: UAE residents planning overseas trips during the December holidays may face increasing pressure on their travel budgets as airlines worldwide warn of higher ticket prices. Rising jet fuel costs are prompting carriers to review fares, flight schedules and operating expenses.
Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, Ryanair, is the latest to warn that airfares across the region could increase by as much as 20% next year if fuel prices remain elevated. The warning comes as US holiday airfares have already reached their highest levels in a decade, according to travel booking platform Hopper.
For UAE residents planning to visit family or travel abroad, the developments underline the importance of comparing fares, considering alternative travel dates and checking additional charges before booking.
The pressure is not confined to one region. Airlines in Europe and the US are facing higher fuel bills, with some carriers cutting flight capacity or reviewing costs to protect profitability.
However, the warnings do not mean that every international flight from the UAE will become more expensive by the same percentage. Fares vary depending on the destination, travel dates, airline capacity and demand. Still, the latest industry figures highlight the possibility of fewer affordable options on some routes.
Double-digit fare hikes in Europe
Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said on Monday that European airlines could introduce double-digit percentage fare increases in 2027 as existing fuel-hedging agreements expire, leaving carriers more exposed to higher market prices.
“We’re certainly looking at double-digit (percentage) fare increases across Europe from all airlines in 2027,” O’Leary said in a video accompanying the company’s quarterly earnings.
In a separate interview with CNBC, he said European airfares could rise by as much as 20% next year.
Ryanair expects its annual fuel bill to increase by around €2 billion ($2.24 billion) in its next financial year. The airline has already cut its winter flight schedule and is considering further cost-saving measures, including temporary pay freezes and greater use of artificial intelligence in administrative operations.
Flight prices under pressure
Jet fuel prices have climbed sharply since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, adding to one of the airline industry’s biggest operating cost pressures.
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that global jet fuel averaged around $99 a barrel on February 27, before more than doubling to $209 in early April. Prices later eased but rose again to approximately $195 in mid-September.
The latest industry data puts the global average at about $196 a barrel, almost twice the level recorded before the conflict.
IATA expects fuel to account for nearly one-third of airlines’ operating expenses this year, up from around a quarter in 2025.
Some airlines initially cushioned the impact of rising fuel prices by purchasing fuel in advance at fixed rates, a strategy known as hedging. However, as these agreements near expiry, carriers face the prospect of paying significantly more to meet their fuel requirements.
Ryanair, for instance, has secured 80% of its fuel needs for the financial year ending March 2027 at an average of about $67 a barrel. For the following financial year, just 25% of its requirements are hedged, at approximately $95 a barrel.
As these lower-cost contracts expire, airlines may need to buy a larger share of their fuel at prevailing market rates, increasing pressure on operating costs.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said fuel hedging had shielded airlines from the immediate impact of rising prices, but warned that costs could climb significantly as those agreements expire.
“Travellers should brace themselves for a sharp increase in the cost of flying unless oil prices fall substantially,” Coatsworth said.
US airfares hit decade highs
The impact is already being felt in the United States, where domestic airfares for Thanksgiving and Christmas have reached their highest levels in 10 years, according to Hopper’s September 2026 Holiday Travel Index.
Average return fares for Thanksgiving have risen to $402, up 31% from a year earlier. Christmas return flights are averaging $452, an increase of 23%.
“Airfares right now are at what we see as a 10-year high because of the high cost of jet fuel,” Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper, told NPR in October.
Hopper has also reported increases in international fares, including a 15% year-on-year rise in Christmas travel prices from the US to Europe and a 23% increase for routes to Mexico and Central America. These figures relate to flights departing from the US and do not reflect fares on routes originating in the UAE.
Higher fuel costs are also affecting airline schedules. Some carriers have cut less profitable services, potentially reducing seat availability during peak holiday travel periods.
Travellers rethink holiday plans
Rising airfares are already influencing how some travellers organise their holidays, with more people considering alternative modes of transport to keep costs down.
A survey released by Hertz on October 29 found that six in 10 US respondents planning holiday trips were more likely to drive because of higher airfares. Among those travelling for Thanksgiving, 37% said they were opting for road trips instead of flying to save money.
Hertz also recorded a 16% year-on-year increase in advance car rental bookings for Thanksgiving, alongside a 7% rise for Christmas and New Year.
Although the findings relate to US travellers, they illustrate how rising ticket prices can influence decisions about destinations, transport and holiday budgets.
For UAE residents travelling to destinations such as Europe, India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia, the available options will vary by route. Travellers with fixed dates may have less flexibility, while those planning multi-destination holidays could compare alternative airports, connecting flights and travel periods.
How to manage travel costs
Timing is one of the most important factors when booking holiday travel. Hopper’s research suggests that shifting departure or return dates by even a day or two can make a considerable difference to airfares.
“We’re definitely seeing travelers already change their behavior, primarily booking earlier,” Berg said in an October 29 interview with Yahoo Finance.
She said Hopper had recorded an unusually large share of holiday bookings in September, rather than the more typical October period, as travellers moved early to secure fares before prices increased further.
For domestic Christmas travel in the US, the booking platform identified December 18 to 20 as among the most expensive departure dates. Monday and Tuesday departures immediately before Christmas were comparatively cheaper. Returning on December 27 was also more expensive than travelling back earlier in the week.
While these findings do not directly apply to flights departing from the UAE, they highlight the value of comparing fares across different travel dates.
Compare the total cost of tickets
Travellers should also look beyond advertised base fares and compare the full cost of their journey. Baggage allowances, seat selection, airport transfers and flight-change charges can significantly affect the final price, particularly when comparing full-service and low-cost airlines.
Those planning multi-city holidays should weigh the cost of booking separate tickets against a single itinerary, while accounting for the additional risks and expenses associated with missed connections.
Setting up price alerts can help travellers track fare movements before booking. Comparing nearby departure dates and alternative airports may also uncover cheaper options.
Booking early does not necessarily guarantee the lowest fare. A more practical approach is to set a realistic budget, monitor available options and book when a suitable price becomes available, particularly for trips tied to school holidays or family commitments.
Could airfares rise further in 2027?
The latest industry warnings suggest that pressure on ticket prices could extend beyond the upcoming holiday season.
Ryanair expects fuel costs to remain elevated into 2027 unless the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly. Its forecast of an additional €2 billion in fuel expenses next year highlights the financial challenges airlines could face as lower-cost fuel agreements expire.
However, the airline’s warning of double-digit fare increases relates to European travel in 2027. It does not represent a confirmed increase across all international routes or UAE departures this December.
For UAE residents, the immediate concern is the cost of overseas travel during the November and December holiday period. Developments in the US and European markets point to significant pricing pressures, but the extent of any increase on routes from the UAE will depend on individual airlines, destinations, demand and available capacity.
With fuel costs remaining high and airlines reviewing their schedules, travellers who have yet to book may want to compare available options early rather than rely on last-minute discounts.
