El Niño may strengthen in the coming months, but its effect on rainfall in the UAE remains uncertain.
Abu Dhabi: The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has projected a 96 per cent chance of El Niño continuing between November 2026 and March 2027, with sea surface temperatures potentially reaching an exceptional 3.8°C above average.
However, the centre has cautioned that an intensification of the climate phenomenon does not automatically mean the UAE will receive heavy rainfall.
In a post on X, the NCM explained that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years. It is not a storm or hurricane, but a phenomenon driven by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The centre said the latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation suggest that sea surface temperatures in the region monitored for El Niño could climb to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. This would indicate that the phenomenon may strengthen to exceptional levels.
In the UAE and the wider Arabian Gulf region, El Niño is expected to have an indirect influence by affecting wind patterns and the movement of low-pressure systems, which could subsequently influence rainfall.
The NCM also put the likelihood of El Niño continuing from November 2026 to March 2027 at 96 per cent, adding that its influence could extend into April.
Seasonal outlooks indicate that temperatures and rainfall across the UAE could remain around or above their typical averages during this period.
The centre stressed that a stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate into heavy rain in the UAE. It clarified that the 96 per cent probability relates to the likelihood of the climate phenomenon continuing, not the chance of rainfall occurring in the country.
