Forecasts point to heavier rainfall in the second week of November, although long-range predictions remain uncertain.
Dubai: The UAE could see successive spells of heavy rain during the first half of November, with colder weather systems potentially bringing more widespread and intense rainfall in the second week of the month, according to an astronomy expert.
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomical Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, said unsettled conditions were expected to persist in waves until mid-November. He added that cold, winter-like low-pressure systems could move across the region.
According to Al Khaleej, Al Jarwan said the second week of November could see stronger and more extensive weather systems. However, he cautioned that forecast reliability drops considerably when predictions cover longer periods.
He explained that meteorological forecasts are generally classified into four categories, each offering a different level of accuracy and detail.
Short-range forecasts, which cover the next 48 hours, are the most reliable, with accuracy exceeding 90 per cent. They can provide relatively precise details about the arrival of low-pressure systems, expected rainfall totals and areas most likely to receive heavy showers.
Medium-range forecasts, covering three to eight days, have an estimated accuracy of 60 to 80 per cent, with confidence declining as the forecast period gets longer.
Al Jarwan noted that forecasting models, including those run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Global Forecast System (GFS), may agree on the formation of a weather system but differ on its timing, trajectory and intensity.
Forecasts covering nine to 15 days are significantly less reliable, with accuracy dropping below 50 per cent, he said. These should therefore be viewed as indications of potential weather trends rather than precise day-by-day predictions.
Seasonal outlooks, which cover periods of more than one month and up to three months, offer a broader assessment of whether temperatures and rainfall are likely to be above or below average. They are based on large-scale climate patterns, including El Niño, ocean temperatures and polar circulation, rather than predictions of individual storms.
El Niño could lead to wetter conditions in the UAE
Meanwhile, the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has reported a 96 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will persist from November 2026 to March 2027, with their influence potentially continuing into April.
The centre’s seasonal outlook suggests that temperatures and rainfall across the UAE could be close to or above their usual averages during this period.
However, the NCM emphasised that the 96 per cent probability relates to the persistence of El Niño, not the likelihood of heavy rain in the UAE.
It explained that the strength of the climate phenomenon alone cannot determine rainfall totals or the intensity of individual weather events.
The centre also referred to a World Meteorological Organisation forecast indicating that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño monitoring region could reach around 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially signalling exceptionally strong El Niño conditions.
What is El Niño and how does it affect the UAE?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that typically develops every two to seven years, when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels.
This warming alters interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, affecting wind circulation, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world.
Its influence can extend well beyond the Pacific, shaping weather systems in distant regions.
The NCM explained that El Niño can indirectly influence wind patterns and the movement of low-pressure systems across the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, potentially affecting rainfall in the UAE.
However, the likelihood and intensity of heavy rain depend on several factors, including atmospheric moisture, wind patterns and the position and strength of individual weather systems.
The centre stressed that even an exceptionally strong El Niño does not necessarily mean the UAE will experience heavy rainfall. Short-range forecasts therefore remain crucial for determining when approaching weather systems may arrive, where they could bring rain and how intense conditions are likely to be.
