October’s oil price trends point to potential increases in UAE petrol rates in November.
Dubai: UAE petrol and diesel prices could rise again in November as Brent crude climbs above $116 a barrel. Oil prices fluctuated during the final week of October, initially retreating before rebounding sharply and crossing the $116 mark. The latest surge comes ahead of the UAE’s monthly fuel-price review.
Brent, the international oil benchmark, gained more than 1.05 per cent to reach $116.10 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.18 per cent to $103.20.
Oil prices resumed their upward trend amid growing concerns that the US could launch fresh military strikes on Iran, raising the risk of further instability in a region critical to global energy supplies. December Brent futures, which expire on Friday, climbed towards $117 a barrel, while the more actively traded January contract moved above $112. Brent has risen from below $97 at the beginning of October.
The rally increases the possibility of higher fuel prices in the UAE next month. However, the final adjustment will depend on international crude and refined-product prices over the monthly pricing period.
How much are motorists paying now?
UAE petrol prices for October stand at Dh4.40 per litre for Super 98, Dh4.28 for Special 95 and Dh4.21 for E-Plus 91. Diesel is priced at Dh4.80 per litre.
All three petrol grades rose by approximately 16 per cent compared with September, while diesel prices increased by 11.6 per cent.
Filling a 60-litre tank with Special 95 currently costs Dh256.80, up from Dh221.40 in September. The same quantity of Super 98 costs Dh264, while E-Plus 91 comes to Dh252.60.
If November prices rise by 10 fils per litre, motorists would pay an additional Dh6 for a 60-litre fill. A 20-fils increase would add Dh12. These figures are illustrative calculations, not price forecasts.
Why crude prices are rising
Oil prices have gained amid concerns about the security of shipping routes in the Middle East, even as signs emerge that Gulf producers are restoring export volumes.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of uncertainty, with attacks on vessels and regional infrastructure adding to concerns over shipping security.
Higher transportation costs are also contributing to the pressure. Goldman Sachs estimates that average global oil transportation costs have climbed from around $3 per barrel last year to more than $20, with rates on some Middle East routes reaching $35.
The bank warned that prolonged disruptions to shipping could keep crude prices above its baseline forecast of $90 a barrel by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, shipping data suggest that Gulf producers have restored significant export volumes by using alternative routes and adjusting operations, helping to offset some of the supply disruptions.
The Wall Street Journal reported that a senior commander briefed US President Donald Trump on military options on Thursday. Trump has also indicated on several occasions that he could resume airstrikes on Tehran after next week’s midterm elections.
Could Monday’s price drop alter the outlook?
Monday’s decline in crude prices may ease some of the upward pressure on UAE fuel rates for November. However, Brent remains significantly higher than its level at the beginning of October.
The UAE’s monthly fuel-pricing mechanism takes international market trends into account rather than reacting to crude price movements on a single day.
This means the broader trend throughout October will carry more weight in determining November’s rates than Monday’s dip alone.
Further declines in crude and refined-product prices could help limit any increase. However, if prices remain above $110 a barrel, upward pressure on fuel costs is likely to persist.
Could petrol prices surpass the 2022 record?
UAE petrol prices in October remain below the record highs recorded in July 2022, when Super 98 reached Dh4.63 per litre, Special 95 stood at Dh4.52 and E-Plus 91 cost Dh4.44.
Super 98 and E-Plus 91 are currently 23 fils below their respective records, while Special 95 is 24 fils lower.
Any increase exceeding these differences would take the respective petrol grades above their July 2022 peaks. However, there is not enough information to determine whether November’s adjustment will be large enough to do so.
What motorists can expect in November
Recent movements in crude prices indicate that upward pressure on UAE fuel rates remains significant, particularly following Brent’s sharp rise during October.
Higher shipping costs and continued uncertainty over Middle East oil supplies add to the possibility of an increase. However, recovering Gulf exports and Monday’s decline in crude prices could help temper the rise.
A further increase in November remains possible, but the direction and extent of the adjustment will only become clear when the UAE announces its official fuel prices at the end of October.
