From Mountain Insurgents to Missile Powerhouse: How Iranian Support and Yemen’s Civil War Fueled the Houthis’ Military Rise.
Dubai: What is driving Yemen’s Houthi rebels to step up attacks against Saudi Arabia, striking airports, energy facilities and major urban centres despite the possibility of sparking a broader regional conflict?
The question gained fresh significance on Sunday after Houthi forces carried out a series of attacks across southern Saudi Arabia, triggering security warnings in several cities. According to AFP, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting at least 10 ballistic missiles.
Residents in Khamis Mushait reported hearing powerful blasts, while authorities issued alerts in Abha, Taif, Namas and Jazan. Saudi air defence systems also reportedly intercepted a cruise missile directed towards Khamis Mushait.
Meanwhile, three explosions were heard in Riyadh early Sunday as the capital’s international airport prepared to partially resume operations following a two-week shutdown caused by earlier deadly Houthi strikes.
The Houthis maintained that King Khalid International Airport remained a military target despite preparations to reopen the facility. An attack earlier in the month reportedly left 13 people dead and more than 300 injured.
However, the escalating confrontation extends well beyond missile strikes and airport security. At its centre are competing interests involving Yemen’s political future, Iran’s regional influence, Middle Eastern security and access to some of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.
Seven important questions help explain the conflict and the objectives behind the latest escalation.
Why are the Houthis increasing their attacks?
Renewed military confrontations within Yemen appear to be the immediate catalyst for the latest escalation. At the same time, the Houthis may be seeking to improve their bargaining position as Saudi Arabia confronts mounting regional security challenges.
A delicate ceasefire arrangement introduced in 2022 had significantly reduced major attacks across the Saudi-Yemeni border. However, disagreements over the operation of airports, access to seaports and Yemen’s political future gradually weakened that understanding.
In September, Houthi fighters reportedly strengthened their presence along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, taking control of strategically important areas close to the Bab Al Mandab Strait. Saudi-supported Yemeni government forces subsequently responded with a military counteroffensive.
Houthi officials have portrayed their cross-border operations as a response to Saudi military action and restrictions affecting territories under their administration.
Some analysts, however, interpret the attacks as part of a wider effort to increase the financial, military and political costs of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen.
By threatening important infrastructure and population centres, the Houthis may be attempting to pressure Riyadh into accepting more favourable terms in future negotiations.
What are the Houthis trying to achieve?
The Houthi movement’s objectives extend beyond its immediate military confrontation with Saudi Arabia. Its ambitions encompass domestic political authority, economic access, regional influence and long-term security arrangements.
- Strengthening political authority in Yemen: Maintain control over Sanaa and large parts of northern Yemen while securing a significant role in shaping the country’s future political leadership.
- Easing restrictions on transport and trade: Seek the reopening and unrestricted operation of airports and seaports in Houthi-controlled territory, alongside reduced external military pressure.
- Securing concessions from Saudi Arabia: Encourage Riyadh to negotiate an agreement acknowledging Houthi political and military influence while reducing support for rival Yemeni factions.
- Increasing leverage over strategic waterways: Capitalise on their geographical position near the Bab Al Mandab Strait, a vital international shipping corridor, to strengthen their strategic and diplomatic influence.
- Expanding their regional standing: Demonstrate their military capabilities and ability to confront powerful regional and international actors, including Saudi Arabia and the United States.
- Preserving ties with Iran: Continue benefiting from their strategic relationship with Tehran, including military assistance, while maintaining their own political and territorial priorities within Yemen.
Together, these objectives suggest that the Houthis view military pressure not only as a means of confronting their adversaries but also as a tool for strengthening their position in negotiations over Yemen’s future.
Are the Houthis Influenced by Iran or Driven by Their Own Objectives?
The Houthis’ military and political activities reflect a combination of Iranian support and their own strategic ambitions, although the degree of Tehran’s influence over the movement remains a subject of debate.
Iran has reportedly supplied advanced weapons technology, military training and technical assistance, enabling the Houthis to strengthen their arsenal of long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.
According to a Reuters report published earlier this month, the recent attacks were partly aimed at pressuring Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to make concessions regarding Yemen while encouraging Riyadh to persuade Washington to ease economic restrictions on Iran.
Nevertheless, the Houthi movement cannot be regarded solely as an extension of Iranian influence.
Its origins date back to northern Yemen in the 1990s, long before the group captured the capital, Sanaa, in 2014 and established itself as a major political and military force.
Over the years, the movement has pursued independent ambitions focused on expanding territorial authority, challenging Yemen’s internationally recognised government and gaining legitimacy as a central player in the country’s political future.
While cooperation with Iran has strengthened the Houthis’ military capabilities, their domestic priorities and political calculations remain important drivers of their actions.
Consequently, even a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran would not automatically resolve the longstanding tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Why Are the Houthis Targeting Airports and Oil Facilities?
The Houthis appear to be using attacks on strategically important infrastructure to increase economic and political pressure on Saudi Arabia, rather than attempting to compete directly with the Kingdom’s superior conventional military forces.
Airports, oil pipelines, petroleum refineries and maritime export terminals form essential parts of Saudi Arabia’s economic infrastructure.
By threatening these facilities, the Houthis can potentially disrupt commercial aviation, interrupt energy operations and create uncertainty for businesses and international investors.
Such attacks may also force Saudi authorities to increase spending on air defence systems, infrastructure protection and emergency security measures.
The potential consequences extend beyond Saudi Arabia, as disruptions to major oil facilities and export routes could affect international energy markets and global supply chains.
Through this approach, the Houthis seek to demonstrate that their missile and drone capabilities can impose substantial economic and security costs, even without matching Saudi Arabia’s overall military strength.
Riyadh’s international airport has emerged as a major focus of Houthi attacks, particularly following the deadly strike reported on October 10.
On Saturday, the Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a series of operations targeting Saudi airports and critical energy infrastructure, including installations near Yanbu and Rabigh, as well as the strategically important East-West Pipeline.
Saudi officials confirmed that air defence systems had intercepted incoming missiles. However, the actual scale of damage resulting from the claimed attacks has yet to be independently established.
Even when missiles and drones are successfully intercepted, such operations can impose significant financial burdens by requiring expensive defensive responses, disrupting commercial activities and forcing temporary closures of essential facilities.
How Has the US-Iran War Influenced the Saudi-Houthi Conflict?
The broader confrontation involving the United States and Iran has increased the strategic significance of the Houthis’ missile and drone capabilities.
With maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz facing major disruptions, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly dependent on its western energy infrastructure and export facilities along the Red Sea coast.
This has made oil installations around Yanbu and maritime routes passing through the Bab Al Mandab Strait especially important for maintaining the Kingdom’s energy exports.
By threatening these strategic locations, the Houthis could complicate efforts to sustain oil shipments from the Gulf while potentially providing Iran with additional leverage in its confrontation with Washington.
Regional sources quoted by Reuters have suggested that the attacks may also be intended to exploit vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia’s economy and increase pressure on its leadership.
Nevertheless, regional analysts warn against interpreting every Houthi military operation as a direct instruction from Tehran.
Although Iranian assistance has contributed to the movement’s military development, the Houthis also make decisions based on their own political priorities and objectives within Yemen.
Why Is the Bab Al Mandab Strait Strategically Important?
The Bab Al Mandab Strait is one of the world’s most significant maritime passages, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and connecting international shipping routes between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal.
The waterway also plays an essential role in transporting Saudi Arabian oil from export terminals situated along the Kingdom’s western coastline.
According to AFP, Houthi forces captured Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline during a rapid military offensive last month, raising concerns about the security of commercial shipping near the strategically important strait.
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces subsequently launched military operations aimed at reclaiming territory from the group.
The possibility of simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandab presents a significant challenge for Gulf energy exporters.
If access to both maritime corridors becomes severely restricted, countries dependent on these routes could struggle to maintain alternative pathways for oil and other commercial shipments.
Such developments could increase shipping insurance premiums, raise transportation expenses and contribute to volatility in international energy prices.
The strategic importance of Bab Al Mandab therefore extends beyond the conflict in Yemen, with potential consequences for global trade, energy security and regional economic stability.
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent Houthi Missile and Drone Strikes?
Saudi Arabia possesses advanced air defence capabilities and has successfully intercepted numerous missiles and drones launched by Houthi forces.
These defensive systems play a central role in protecting major cities, airports, military installations and vital energy infrastructure from aerial threats.
Recent missile and drone interceptions near Riyadh, Taif, Yanbu and Khamis Mushait highlight the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s air defence capabilities in responding to aerial threats.
Nevertheless, even the most advanced defence systems cannot provide absolute protection against every incoming attack.
Saudi Arabia faces the considerable challenge of safeguarding an extensive geographical area containing numerous strategically important locations, including international airports, major population centres, petroleum facilities and industrial complexes.
Different types of aerial weapons also create distinct security challenges. Low-altitude drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles require varying detection, tracking and interception methods, making comprehensive defence operations increasingly complex.
Furthermore, successfully destroying an incoming projectile does not eliminate every danger. Falling fragments can threaten people and property, while security alerts and interception operations may interrupt flights, commercial activities and essential public services.
For Saudi authorities, the broader challenge is not simply intercepting hostile projectiles but ensuring that economic operations, critical infrastructure and civilian life can continue safely despite repeated attacks.
What Could Bring an End to the Escalating Conflict?
Achieving a sustainable resolution would require meaningful progress on several longstanding disputes, particularly Yemen’s political future, territorial governance and regional security arrangements.
The Houthi movement is seeking greater political recognition, the easing of restrictions affecting airports and seaports under its control, and an end to military operations targeting territories it administers.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognised government, meanwhile, are pursuing security assurances and a political settlement capable of preventing further cross-border attacks and restoring stability.
However, the ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran has added another layer of complexity to diplomatic efforts, making negotiations more difficult.
Further military escalation could provoke a stronger response from Saudi Arabia, especially if another major strike results in significant civilian casualties or causes extensive damage to vital energy infrastructure.
An expansion of attacks against international commercial vessels could also increase the possibility of additional countries becoming involved in the confrontation, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict.
For the Houthis, continued military operations appear to serve a wider political purpose: increasing pressure on their adversaries and strengthening their position in future negotiations.
Yet the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain.
Ultimately, the central question is whether sustained military pressure will persuade opposing sides to make diplomatic concessions or instead deepen hostilities and push the Middle East towards a more extensive and potentially devastating conflict.
