UAE weather: Why temperatures can still hit 45°C despite the autumn equinox

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Fog and shifting winds mark the UAE’s gradual transition from summer to cooler weather.

Dubai: If it doesn’t quite feel like autumn outside your window this morning, you’re not imagining it. The UAE officially crossed into the new season in the early hours of Wednesday, as the September equinox occurred at 00:06 GMT (4:06am UAE time).

The equinox marks the moment when the Sun is directly above the equator, before its apparent path continues southward as the Northern Hemisphere heads into its winter half of the year.

It is also the point in the calendar when day and night are closest to equal in length across the world — and the astronomical marker that the Northern Hemisphere has begun tilting away from the Sun.

On paper, it is one of the biggest seasonal turning points of the year. On the ground, however, the National Centre of Meteorology’s (NCM) latest bulletin suggests the UAE is in no hurry to feel the change.

Internal areas are forecast to reach 43°C to 45°C today, while coastal and island regions are expected to see highs of 37°C to 42°C. Even the country’s cooler mountain areas will remain relatively warm, with temperatures ranging from 29°C to 35°C.

The readings make this equinox noticeably warmer than the same period a year earlier, when coastal highs were closer to the mid-30s.

How the heat breaks down by emirate

Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain and Abu Dhabi fall within the NCM’s “coastal and islands” category, with highs of 37°C to 42°C expected today. Overnight lows will range from 27°C to 33°C.

Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah are also expected to see similar coastal temperatures. However, higher elevations around Jebel Jais and across the wider Hajar mountain range will remain noticeably cooler, with highs of 29°C to 35°C and lows falling to around 25°C — the coolest temperatures expected in the UAE today.

It is further inland, in Al Ain and the interior stretches of Abu Dhabi emirate, including Liwa and Al Dhafra, where the heat will be most intense. Temperatures are forecast to reach 43°C to 45°C, with overnight lows easing only to 21°C to 27°C in the early morning hours.

Humidity, wind and sea conditions

Skies are expected to remain fair to partly cloudy, with convective clouds possibly developing over eastern and southern areas during the afternoon. The NCM bulletin does not forecast organised rainfall today, although isolated activity cannot be completely ruled out in areas where these clouds form.

The bigger factor will be humidity. Relative humidity is expected to rise sharply overnight across both coastal and inland areas, reaching 70 to 90 per cent. The increase in moisture could raise the likelihood of mist forming over some western areas by Thursday morning.

For now, residents can expect today to feel much like the summer they are leaving behind. More noticeable cooling is still likely to be several weeks away, with early-morning mist offering only a subtle hint that the season is beginning to turn.

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