Market flows and survey data highlight strong confidence in the growth prospects of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the broader GCC.
Dubai: Global investors are maintaining confidence in the Gulf despite recent regional tensions, with fresh surveys, bank research and equity flow data pointing to optimism about the region’s economic outlook, trade resilience and growth prospects.
A new investor survey by Consulum and HarrisX found that 82% of global investors are confident about the Gulf’s economic future, while 69% consider the region a good or excellent place to invest or do business today.
The survey, which polled 2,043 investors across the US, UK, Germany, France and China, found the highest level of confidence among Chinese respondents at 91%. Investors in the US and UK followed at 84% each, ahead of Germany at 80% and France at 71%.
Gulf seen as an emerging economic powerhouse
The findings come in the wake of heightened geopolitical volatility stemming from the US-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the uncertainty, investors appear to view the tensions as a manageable short-term risk rather than a lasting threat to the Gulf’s economic growth, trade prospects and investment appeal.
Consulum and HarrisX said 70% of international investors expect the GCC’s global economic influence to increase over the next five years. Confidence was strongest in the UK, where 78% of respondents shared that view, followed by the US (74%), China (70%), Germany (65%) and France (61%).
“The international investment community sees the Gulf’s economic story as one of sustained momentum,” said James Davies, CEO of Consulum. “Investors are not reacting to a geopolitical moment—they are making a long-term judgment on the strength, resilience and progress the GCC has built.”
The survey also found that 71% of global investors expect the US-Israel-Iran conflict to be resolved through a negotiated agreement. A similar proportion believes Gulf states should play a role in that process, with 32% supporting direct participation in negotiations and 39% favouring behind-the-scenes diplomatic engagement.
“Global investors support a US-Iran agreement that reflects regional input and ensures safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX. “They are showing patience, with a majority believing negotiations will continue to make progress or ultimately result in a successful deal.”
UAE business activity set to strengthen
Investor optimism is being reinforced by signs of resilience in the UAE economy. In its latest economic analysis, Standard Chartered said business activity in the UAE is expected to gather pace in the third quarter of 2026, supported by strong domestic consumption, sustained investment and a gradual recovery in external demand as regional trade flows normalise.
The bank noted that the UAE’s June S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index remained above the 50-point threshold, signalling continued expansion in the non-oil private sector despite the height of the recent regional conflict.
“The UAE’s latest PMI reading underscores the resilience of its non-oil economy and private sector activity during a period of regional uncertainty,” said Rola Abu Manneh, Chief Executive Officer, UAE, Middle East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered. “Domestic consumption and investment continue to underpin growth, while the gradual recovery in external demand points to a more positive outlook for the third quarter. Together, these trends reflect the strength of the UAE’s economic fundamentals and reinforce its position as a leading hub for trade, investment and capital flows.”
Standard Chartered expects lower oil prices, an improving labour market and stronger investment growth to support the UAE’s economic momentum in the third quarter.
The bank also said the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with earlier rerouting of oil exports, had helped restore the UAE’s crude exports to near-normal levels. Across the wider region, however, the recovery in oil exports is expected to be more gradual.
Saudi momentum also strengthens
Saudi Arabia is also poised to enter the third quarter with firmer business momentum, according to separate research by Standard Chartered.
The bank said the kingdom’s underlying economic activity remained resilient despite regional uncertainty. Point-of-sale transactions rose 6% year on year in May, recovering to levels last seen in January 2026, reflecting steady consumer spending and domestic demand.
“Saudi Arabia’s economy has continued to demonstrate resilience despite a period of heightened regional uncertainty, reflecting the strength of domestic demand and the progress of the Kingdom’s economic diversification agenda,” said Mazen Bunyan, CEO and Head of Coverage, Saudi Arabia at Standard Chartered. “As regional conditions improve, we expect this resilience to translate into stronger business momentum, creating further opportunities for investment and private sector growth in the second half of the year.”
Standard Chartered expects Saudi Arabia’s growth to be supported in the third quarter by sustained investment, easing inflationary pressures and an improving labour market.
The bank also said the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had helped restore Saudi oil exports to near-normal levels, providing additional support for trade and broader economic activity in the second half of the year.
Foreign investors return to GCC equities
Growing investor confidence is also being reflected in regional equity markets. According to Iridium’s Foreign Flow Analysis, GCC stock markets returned to net foreign inflows in June, attracting $144 million after recording net outflows of $837 million in May.
Saudi Arabia led the region with $543 million in net foreign inflows in June, extending its streak to 11 months of inflows over the past year. The UAE also returned to positive territory, attracting $93 million in net inflows, driven by Abu Dhabi, which recorded $120 million. Dubai posted a comparatively modest outflow of $26 million, a marked improvement from the previous three months.
Kuwait and Qatar continued to see net foreign outflows of $268 million and $172 million, respectively, indicating that international investors remain selective in their allocations across GCC markets.
Despite volatility stemming from the US-Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, GCC equity markets have attracted net foreign inflows of $1.3 billion so far this year.
Iridium said June’s rebound should be viewed as the beginning of a fresh allocation cycle rather than a one-off recovery. It said the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have given global investors renewed confidence to reassess their exposure to GCC markets.
Confidence remains strong at home
The upbeat outlook among global investors is mirrored by public sentiment across the Gulf.
A May survey by Consulum and HarrisX covering the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain found that 90% of respondents believed their country was heading in the right direction, while 89% expressed confidence in its economic future.
Confidence in national economies exceeded 90% across all four markets surveyed. In the UAE, 93% of respondents said they trusted the government to shield the country from the effects of the regional conflict, while 91% expressed confidence in its ability to manage geopolitical crises.
“Read alongside our May survey, two different audiences—global investors and the Gulf’s own residents—are reaching similar conclusions,” said Ranulph Murray, Head of Consulum Intelligence. “That alignment between international capital and domestic sentiment is a powerful indicator that confidence in the Gulf is structural, enduring and well established.”
