The pricing model itself has not changed—airlines still rely on real-time systems.
Dubai: Airfares are now changing within hours—search once, then check again later, and the difference can be significant. What once shifted over days is now happening almost instantly, as airlines respond to fuel volatility, disrupted schedules and fluctuating demand.
The pricing model itself has not changed. Airlines still rely on real-time systems that adjust fares as seats are sold—but the pressure on those systems has increased significantly.
Fuel costs remain a major driver. The International Air Transport Association’s latest fuel monitor shows jet fuel averaging around $179 per barrel, underscoring continued volatility in energy markets. Even before the conflict, IATA had projected fuel would account for 25.7 per cent of airline operating costs—leaving carriers highly exposed to price swings.
Fuel pressure builds
The International Air Transport Association has repeatedly warned that fuel remains “the largest cost item for airlines,” meaning any sustained increase forces carriers to adjust fares to protect margins.
At the same time, flight availability has dropped sharply. Data from Cirium highlights the scale of disruption: in March 2026, Middle East-based airlines recorded a 52 per cent year-on-year decline in flights, while capacity fell by more than half during the early phase of the conflict.
Cirium estimates that around 5 million passengers were affected by cancellations between February 28 and March 11 alone, underscoring how quickly supply constraints can push fares higher.
In its assessment, Cirium said the “scale of cancellations and capacity reductions highlights the significant operational impact on the region’s aviation network.”
Fewer flights, higher fares
Fewer flights mean fewer available seats—and that alone can push fares higher, even without a rise in demand.
Airspace restrictions are adding another layer of cost. Airlines are avoiding conflict zones, forcing longer flight paths. These detours increase fuel burn and reduce aircraft utilisation, limiting how many flights can operate each day.
Those costs feed directly into ticket pricing. Booking patterns are also shifting—some travellers are booking earlier to lock in seats, while others are delaying decisions amid uncertainty. This creates unpredictable demand spikes, which pricing systems respond to almost instantly.
Why prices change so quickly
This is why repeated searches often return different fares. Seat inventory is constantly changing in real time as tickets are sold and lower fare classes are snapped up.
Airlines are not adjusting prices based on individual searches, but on overall market activity. Their systems respond to how quickly seats are being booked and how much capacity remains.
For UAE travellers, the impact is already evident across both short-haul and long-haul routes. Reduced capacity, higher operating costs and uneven demand are pushing fares higher, while availability on some routes is tightening rapidly.
How hotel rates are changing too
Hotels are responding more unevenly. In destinations where flight access has been reduced, demand remains softer, while in better-connected hubs, pricing is holding firmer.
Industry data consistently shows that recovery in hotel demand depends heavily on the reopening of air routes and the return of stable flight schedules—highlighting how closely hotel performance is tied to air connectivity.
The underlying dynamic is structural. Air connectivity is a key driver of tourism demand: stronger flight networks boost a destination’s ability to attract visitors, while limited access restricts arrivals and weighs on hotel occupancy.
UAE fliers can book differently
Flexibility matters more than ever. Checking nearby travel dates can help uncover lower fares before cheaper seats sell out.
Comparing platforms can also make a difference, as airlines and booking sites may display different prices at the same time due to fees and access to inventory.
Booking earlier is becoming increasingly important on busy routes. With fewer seats available, lower fare tiers are disappearing faster, according to Cirium data.
Waiting for last-minute deals is now riskier. Airlines are adjusting prices more frequently, reflecting real-time demand patterns highlighted by the International Air Transport Association.
