More rainfall and colder nights expected as the UAE enters one of its most active weather periods of the season.
Dubai: Residents across the UAE can expect a marked change in weather conditions as a strong cold spell moves across the country. According to the National Centre of Meteorology, a surface low-pressure system, supported by an upper-level trough and a deep cold air mass, will affect the Emirates from Wednesday, March 4, through Thursday, March 5, 2026.
However, the effects are likely to persist beyond those dates, with forecasters warning that colder conditions could continue into the weekend.
What’s driving this cold spell?
Muhammed Sajjad KP, widely known as the “UAE Weatherman” on social media, has explained that Global Forecast System (GFS) temperature anomaly models indicate a pronounced cold anomaly moving into the Arabian Peninsula.
According to his analysis, this system is drawing significantly below-normal air temperatures across the region, contributing to the sharp drop in temperatures forecast for the UAE.
This week and next, northwesterly airflow is expected to dominate the upper atmosphere, reinforcing the cold pattern and keeping daytime temperatures well below seasonal averages. The combination of the surface low, upper-level trough, and cold air mass is creating a potent mix of cloudy skies, rainfall, and gusty winds—conditions capable of bringing sudden overnight changes.
Rain forecast: When and where to expect it
Widespread cloud cover will develop across the UAE, with rainfall likely over scattered areas from Wednesday to Thursday. While much of the country may experience light to moderate showers, residents in the northern and eastern regions should be prepared for occasional heavier bursts.
Rainfall is expected to be most active during nighttime and early morning hours, particularly from Thursday through Friday nights, with showers continuing in some areas until Saturday. The period from midnight to early morning is likely to see the heaviest activity, so commuters travelling during pre-dawn hours are advised to exercise extra caution on the roads.
A notable drop in temperatures
This cold wave ranks among the more pronounced spells to affect the UAE this season. As northwesterly winds replace the relatively warmer southeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to fall noticeably. Nights and early mornings on Thursday and Friday are forecast to be especially chilly, marking one of the coldest stretches experienced so far. Another cold wave is expected to follow in the coming days, indicating that this cooler pattern is part of a broader atmospheric trend rather than a one-off event.
Windy conditions and blowing dust
Winds will initially blow from the southeast before shifting to a northwesterly direction as the system develops. These winds are expected to range from moderate to fresh, with occasional strong gusts capable of lifting dust and sand across open desert areas, reducing visibility on highways and exposed locations. Motorists, particularly in inland regions, are advised to remain vigilant. The northwesterly shift also signals the arrival of the colder air, making temperatures feel even sharper.
Sea conditions: Rough waters ahead
Mariners and beach-goers are advised to exercise caution over the coming days. Seas in the Arabian Gulf are forecast to turn rough from Tuesday night, with turbulent conditions expected to continue through Thursday. In the Oman Sea, wave heights will be slight to moderate initially, with occasional rough spells. Those planning maritime activities, water sports, or coastal outings should closely monitor marine forecasts and avoid venturing into the water if conditions worsen.
What to expect this weekend
The impact of the cold wave is expected to extend beyond the core March 4–5 period. Unsettled conditions, including cold temperatures, residual showers, and persistent northwesterly winds, are likely to continue through the weekend. Families planning outdoor activities should follow updated forecasts closely, as the timing and intensity of remaining showers may change. Residents are advised to stay informed, drive safely, and keep warm as colder weather returns to the Emirates.
