Gulf tensions push oil prices higher, putting UAE March fuel rates in the spotlight.
Dubai: UAE petrol and diesel prices for March will be announced at the end of this month. Fuel rates fell again in February, offering motorists some relief. However, oil prices have climbed over the past week as tensions between Iran and the United States returned to the spotlight. The recent surge increases the likelihood of a change in pump prices next month.
Where UAE pump prices stand now
The UAE Fuel Price Committee set February 2026 rates at Dh2.45 for Super 98, Dh2.33 for Special 95, Dh2.26 for E-Plus 91, and Dh2.52 for diesel.
In January 2026, prices were higher: Super 98 cost Dh2.53, Special 95 was Dh2.42, E-Plus 91 stood at Dh2.34, and diesel was Dh2.55.
Motorists have therefore seen two consecutive months of price cuts since December.
In the UAE, petrol and diesel prices are revised monthly by the Fuel Price Committee. Rates are linked to average global oil prices and refined fuel costs from the previous month. When crude oil prices rise, pump rates typically increase as well; when oil prices fall, retail fuel prices tend to ease.
Historical data shows that fuel prices climbed steadily through mid-2025, peaked around October, then eased in December before dropping sharply in January.
Over the past year, UAE motorists have experienced multiple rounds of increases and reductions, highlighting how quickly fluctuations in global oil markets can translate into changes at the pump.
What’s happening in oil markets now
Oil prices have climbed to their strongest levels in months amid growing concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent Crude has hovered near the $71 mark in late trading, with markets closely watching nuclear talks between the United States and Iran.
Analysts say part of the recent price rise reflects a geopolitical risk premium in crude markets. Daniel Yergin of S&P Global noted that oil carries roughly a $10 “premium” linked to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran tensions, with Brent touching $72.33 on February 23.
What March 2026 prices could look like
Based on current trends, March fuel prices in the UAE are more likely to edge higher from February levels rather than decline again. The key reason: oil prices are now above the averages that fed into February’s pump-rate reductions.
However, the main driver at present is geopolitical risk rather than an immediate supply shortage. Yergin added that, based purely on supply and demand fundamentals, prices would likely be lower, describing the market as adequately supplied — with sentiment and uncertainty doing much of the lifting.
What does that mean for you?
If tensions ease and oil prices retreat, any adjustment to March fuel rates could remain limited. However, if the geopolitical risk premium persists through the pricing window, a modest increase in March becomes more likely — particularly for diesel, which tends to respond more quickly when global supply routes appear vulnerable.
What this means for UAE motorists
- March pump prices could edge higher after two consecutive months of cuts.
- A sharp spike remains unlikely unless the Gulf situation escalates enough to keep oil trading near recent highs.
- The official March rates will be confirmed in the coming days when the new price list is released by the UAE Fuel Price Committee.
This outlook is based on current market pricing and recent developments. UAE petrol and diesel rates are set monthly by the UAE Fuel Price Committee and may vary if global oil markets shift before the official announcement.
