RealFeel temperatures in the UAE are significantly higher than actual readings this July due to humidity.
Dubai: The UAE begins July with the heat already firmly in place. According to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) and AccuWeather, the month ahead is expected to bring intense daytime temperatures, warm nights and rising humidity, continuing a pattern that has steadily intensified through June.
NCM: El Niño could push temperatures higher
The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast a 98 per cent probability of El Niño conditions between July and November 2026. It said temperatures and rainfall during this period are expected to be near to above seasonal averages.
El Niño refers to a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While the NCM has not predicted a specific impact for the UAE, it noted that past El Niño events have been linked to weaker northwesterly winds—typically responsible for bringing some cooling relief to the Gulf during summer. If that pattern repeats, residents could experience reduced sea-breeze relief this July.
Heading into the month, the NCM’s daily bulletins have already indicated a clear trend. In late June, the centre forecast maximum temperatures of up to 48°C in inland areas, along with humid overnight conditions and a possibility of coastal fog. July is expected to continue—and potentially intensify—this pattern.
AccuWeather: City by city
AccuWeather’s monthly outlook provides a more detailed breakdown of conditions expected across each emirate.
Dubai: Daily highs are forecast to range between 39°C and 44°C, with an average high of 41°C. Overnight lows are expected to average around 32°C, rarely dipping below 31°C.
Abu Dhabi: Temperatures are forecast to peak between 39°C and 43°C, averaging about 41°C, while nighttime lows are expected to hover around 29°C.
Al Ain: AccuWeather data indicates a comparatively lower range for the inland city, with highs between 34°C and 37°C and an average high of 36°C. This stands out as notably cooler than Al Ain’s usual July reputation as one of the UAE’s hottest locations.
Sharjah: Historical averages for the period suggest highs near 41°C and lows around 26°C, broadly similar to conditions in Dubai.
For the northern emirates, including Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah, NCM bulletins from late June recorded maximum temperatures ranging between 35°C and 42°C nationwide, with the east coast expected to see comparatively milder conditions and occasional light rainfall over the Fujairah mountains.
Humidity and how it will feel
Heat alone doesn’t tell the full story. AccuWeather’s RealFeel index, which factors in humidity, has consistently shown perceived temperatures running several degrees higher than actual readings in coastal areas. In Dubai, current RealFeel values have reached up to 45°C despite actual temperatures sitting in the high 30s. In Abu Dhabi, RealFeel has similarly climbed into the mid-40s under comparable conditions.
The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has also flagged persistently humid nights as a recurring feature heading into July, particularly along the coast, along with an increased likelihood of early-morning fog or mist.
