Brent tops $110 as record shipping costs fuel fears of another petrol price hike.
Dubai: UAE motorists could face another increase in petrol and diesel prices in November as global oil prices climb to five-month highs, while soaring shipping costs add to pressure on international energy markets.
Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel for a second time on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains as traders weighed renewed threats to Middle East oil shipments against signs of recovering exports from Gulf producers.
The international benchmark traded at $110.86, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $99.97, with both gaining more than 1%.
For UAE motorists, the rally raises the prospect of another price increase when November fuel rates are announced at the end of October. The outlook follows an increase of nearly 16% across the three petrol grades in October.
The UAE’s market-linked fuel pricing mechanism is reviewed monthly and reflects international energy-market conditions. As a result, the average price trend over the October pricing period, rather than Brent’s latest quotation alone, will be a key factor in determining November’s rates.
How much motorists pay
October fuel prices stand at Dh4.40 per litre for Super 98, Dh4.28 for Special 95 and Dh4.21 for E-Plus 91. Diesel is priced at Dh4.80 per litre.
All three petrol grades rose by around 16% from September, when Super 98 cost Dh3.80, Special 95 Dh3.69 and E-Plus 91 Dh3.61. Diesel increased from Dh4.30 per litre.
The longer-term comparison highlights the scale of the price surge. In February, before the latest Middle East conflict, Super 98 cost Dh2.59 per litre, Special 95 Dh2.48 and E-Plus 91 Dh2.40, while diesel stood at Dh2.72.
October petrol prices are now approximately 70% to 75% above February levels, while diesel is around 76% more expensive.
With international crude prices remaining elevated and oil transportation costs climbing, the key question is whether these pressures will translate into another increase when the UAE announces its November fuel prices.
Impact of oil prices above $110
Brent crude has surged nearly 80% so far this year, as the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war have disrupted energy supplies and heightened uncertainty over global oil flows.
The benchmark recently crossed $110 a barrel for the first time since May, reversing an earlier period of easing prices.
Shipping security remains a key driver of the rally. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that at least 18 vessels had been attacked over the preceding two weeks, raising concerns about the reliability of oil shipments through the region.
Renewed Houthi attacks and strikes targeting Saudi energy infrastructure and other facilities have added to market uncertainty.
Meanwhile, tighter US oil inventories have provided further support for prices. Industry estimates from the American Petroleum Institute pointed to additional declines in crude and petroleum-product stocks, reinforcing concerns over supply.
Together, these factors have kept Brent elevated despite reports of recovering Gulf oil exports.
Record shipping costs
The cost of transporting crude has emerged as another major pressure point in global energy markets.
According to Goldman Sachs, average oil freight costs have risen from around $3 per barrel last year to more than $20, while rates on some Middle East routes have reached $35 per barrel.
The bank attributed the increase partly to higher war-risk insurance premiums, rising vessel fuel costs and the growing use of ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
These additional expenses have made oil deliveries more costly, even as Gulf producers find alternative ways to keep crude moving. For the UAE, the sustained rise in crude prices and shipping costs adds to the uncertainty surrounding the November fuel-price review.
These transfers allow crude to move between vessels as shipping companies adapt operations to security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. However, they also tie up tankers for longer periods, reducing vessel availability for other routes and adding to freight costs.
Goldman Sachs analysts warned: “Higher freight rates for longer pose some upside risk to our Brent forecast, along with the risks of more intense shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a stickier geopolitical risk premium.”
The bank’s baseline forecast remains Brent at $90 a barrel by the end of 2026, although persistent shipping disruptions pose upside risks to that projection.
For the UAE’s fuel-price outlook, these costs matter because international refined-product prices and broader market conditions influence retail rates. However, higher freight costs do not translate directly into an equivalent increase at the pump.
Gulf oil exports are recovering
There is an important counterweight to concerns over supply disruptions.
The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler data, reported that total Middle East oil flows reached approximately 24 million barrels per day in the week to October 18, exceeding prewar levels. The figures suggest that regional producers and shipping companies have adapted to disruptions by using alternative routes and adjusting shipping operations.
However, estimates of oil shipments specifically passing through the Strait of Hormuz differ. Reuters cited Kpler data indicating flows of around 8.5 million barrels per day, while The Wall Street Journal reported approximately 14 million barrels per day.
The discrepancy highlights the need to distinguish total regional exports from shipments through individual routes, while accounting for differences in reporting periods and measurement methods.
DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar told Reuters that oil markets were balancing hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough against persistent supply risks and declining US inventories.
“We believe this is a mix of profit taking and optimistic hopes of a Qatar- or Pakistan-brokered deal, countered by the realisation that any deal is still very distant and compounded further by inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which shows drawdowns continuing in the US for both crude and products,” Sarkar said.
What another increase would mean for motorists
November’s fuel prices cannot be reliably calculated from current Brent quotations alone. However, motorists can estimate how different price adjustments would affect their fuel bills.
For a vehicle taking 60 litres of Special 95, a full tank currently costs Dh256.80. An increase of 10 fils per litre would add Dh6, while a 20-fils increase would add Dh12.
For an SUV with an 80-litre tank using the same grade, the corresponding increases would add Dh8 and Dh16, respectively.
A motorist consuming 240 litres of petrol a month would pay an additional Dh24 for every 10-fils-per-litre increase.
These are illustrative calculations, not predictions of November’s fuel prices.
What to expect in November
The risk of another UAE fuel-price increase remains a key concern as October draws to a close. Brent crude above $110, tighter US inventories and elevated tanker freight costs are adding pressure to international energy markets.
However, recovering Gulf oil exports and the prospect of diplomatic progress could help moderate prices if they lead to a sustained easing in crude and refined-product markets.
The remainder of October will be important in determining the direction of November’s rates. If Brent remains near $110 and international refined-product prices stay elevated, the pressure for higher pump prices will persist.
A sustained decline towards $100 a barrel or below could ease some of that pressure, although the monthly pricing assessment will depend on the broader trend in international fuel prices rather than crude benchmarks alone.
For UAE motorists, the balance of risks points towards another fuel-price increase rather than a significant reduction in November. The final adjustment, however, will depend on international oil and refined-fuel prices over the remainder of October.
