Importers and traders advised to check factory reopening dates after China’s September Mid-Autumn holiday and October 2026 National Day break.
Freight charges to the UAE and across the Gulf have risen by as much as tenfold since the Strait of Hormuz was closed following the US-Israel-Iran war, with rates expected to increase by a further 25 per cent in the coming months amid container shortages and ongoing disruptions, according to leading traders and importers.
Anis Sajan, vice chairman of Danube Group, said a shipment that previously cost $1,000 now costs between $10,000 and $12,000 and could rise to $15,000 in the coming months. He said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had also contributed to a shortage of containers from China, Italy and other countries.
“Goods that used to take 25 days to reach the UAE and the region now take 60 days, and sometimes 90 days. A war surcharge has been added on top,” he said, adding that freight rates have not fallen in the six months since the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Dubai Milano Traders Meet in Dubai, Sajan said many recently launched projects require raw materials, meaning developers and manufacturers must continue with their plans despite higher costs. He added that companies importing goods now could benefit from demand in the months ahead.
He added that his home-furnishing company, Casa Milano, grew 20 per cent year-on-year despite the conflict, while Danube Building Materials also recorded growth.
Supply chain routes have been disrupted since the US-Israel-Iran war broke out on February 28, 2026, affecting the movement of goods and energy vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Azhar Sajan, director of Casa Milano, said freight costs that once stood at $1,000-$2,000 had risen to $6,000 and now range between $10,000 and $12,000. “Lead times have stretched from about 30 days to at least 60, and possibly 70. Brass prices are up 30 per cent on pre-conflict levels, raising landed costs.”
To offset the higher costs, the company is expanding its exports. It now supplies 10 to 12 countries in Africa, including Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia, as well as Georgia. Buying directly from China has opened up new options for export customers, he said. Exports have increased from about 10 per cent of the business in 2020 to 30-35 per cent.
He said the ports of Khorfakkan and Fujairah have proved particularly useful amid the regional challenges.
Rates to stay elevated
Masna Haseen, director of marketing and growth at tradeX Link, said rates for 40-foot high-cube containers had risen from about $2,000 before the disruption to indicative quotes of $7,000-$11,000, an increase of 250 to 450 per cent.
“Across ten containers, that adds $50,000 to $90,000. Spread over 1,000 saleable units per container, it adds $5 to $9 to each item,” she said.
Haseen said rates are likely to remain elevated on disrupted Gulf-bound services through the fourth quarter.
She projected a further 5-15 per cent increase during peak weeks compared with September quotations if fuel and capacity pressures persist. “On a $9,000 booking, that would mean $9,450 to $10,350. It is a judgment-based estimate, not a measured global average.”
She advised importers and traders to check factory reopening dates following China’s Mid-Autumn holiday from September 25 to 27 and the National Day break from October 1 to 7. Missed sailings could put Christmas and year-end deliveries at risk.
“It is complete when the goods can be sold, installed or put to work,” she said, describing when a shipment should be considered complete.
If the conflict ends now, Azhar Sajan expects freight rates and supply chains to recover to pre-war levels within a few months, citing the resilience of the local economy and business community.
