UAE Motorists Await October Pump Prices as Oil Markets Face Continued Uncertainty Over the Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Shipping.
Oil prices climbed to around $107 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session as UAE motorists await the announcement of revised fuel prices for October.
Brent crude futures for November rose 1.6% to around $107 a barrel on Tuesday morning, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.41% to $93.81.
Prices remained supported by concerns over potential Middle East supply disruptions linked to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, outweighing signs that crude exports from the region were beginning to recover.
Fuel prices in the UAE are reviewed monthly, taking into account movements in global oil markets. The country’s petrol and diesel prices for October are due to be announced on Wednesday, September 30.
For September, the UAE Fuel Price Committee raised retail petrol prices by around Dh0.20 per litre. Super 98 was set at Dh3.80 per litre, Special 95 at Dh3.69 and E-Plus 91 at Dh3.61.
UAE fuel prices reached record levels in 2024, when pump rates climbed above Dh4 per litre following the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global energy markets.
Ongoing US-Iran tensions and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are now keeping oil prices elevated, with crude trading at higher levels in September 2026 than during the previous month.
Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said Brent crude had moved back towards the $106-$107-per-barrel range as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and Middle East oil supplies continued.
He said higher crude prices were creating challenges on both sides of the Atlantic. While elevated prices can support energy stocks, they can also fuel inflation expectations, increase transport and manufacturing costs for businesses and put additional pressure on household spending.
Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, said the rise in fuel prices since the summer had increasingly drawn the attention of consumers and policymakers.
He noted that the US government was considering restrictions on diesel exports as one possible measure to ease prices, although it remained uncertain whether such a move would be introduced.
Rücker said the broader oil market could potentially adjust to such restrictions with less disruption than expected. However, he questioned whether current supply fundamentals fully explain the sharp increase in fuel prices since the summer.
US diesel inventories have not significantly tightened, while fuel supplies in Europe and Asia remain relatively ample and exports of refined oil products from the Middle East and Asia are increasing, he said.
Despite those factors, concerns over potential supply shortages continue to dominate market sentiment. Rücker said oil was currently being driven heavily by uncertainty and risk premiums, adding that Julius Baer was maintaining a cautious outlook.
Meanwhile, fresh concerns are emerging in global oil markets as the sharp rise in fuel prices fuels debate over possible US trade restrictions.
Rücker said the strong increase in fuel prices since the summer had prompted an open discussion within the US government about potential trade measures.
He noted that rising US crude oil and refined product exports had previously been one of several factors supporting the oil market’s resilience. However, US oil exports have fallen since early summer and are now close to levels seen before the crisis.
Rücker added that the rise in oil product prices since the summer remains difficult to explain purely through market fundamentals. While US gasoline and, particularly, diesel supplies remain tight, he said the supply deficit has not worsened significantly since the summer.
