Travel agents say demand remains strong, but limited flight availability and high fares are delaying booking decisions.
Dubai: UAE residents continue to show strong interest in summer travel, but rising airfares and reduced flight availability—driven by a global jet fuel crunch—are prompting many families to adopt a wait-and-watch approach to bookings, according to travel agents.
Travel companies say the main challenge is not demand, but limited seat supply, particularly on high-traffic routes such as India, where reduced airline frequencies have pushed ticket prices sharply higher.
“Demand is there—supply is the issue,” said Raheesh Babu, Chief Operating Officer of Musafir.com. “Airfares are very high because flights are limited. For example, Indian carriers like IndiGo were operating around 40 flights a day on certain sectors, and now that is down to fewer than 10. That shortage is directly leading to higher fares.”
For UAE residents, especially families planning annual holidays or trips home during school vacations, this has resulted in delayed booking decisions. Many are tracking fares daily in the hope that prices will ease once flight capacity increases.
“People are willing to travel—that has never changed,” Babu said. “The only reason they are delaying bookings is because prices are high. Airlines say fuel and insurance costs have risen sharply, so passengers are adopting a wait-and-watch approach.”
Jet fuel supply crisis
The aviation disruption comes as global airlines continue to grapple with rising jet fuel prices amid instability in the Middle East supply chain.
Airlines worldwide have been forced to reduce flight frequencies, cut capacity, and increase fares as fuel costs remain one of the largest operating expenses. Industry estimates suggest jet fuel can account for up to 40% of airline operating costs during periods of crisis.
TP Sudeesh, general manager of Deira Travels, said UAE carriers are currently operating at around 60 to 70 per cent capacity.
“There is still no additional supply,” Sudeesh said. “Airlines are only releasing schedules for the next five to seven days in some cases. Earlier, passengers had four or five flights a day to choose from on many regional routes—now they may only find one or two.”
Tougher on the pocket
The situation has made travel especially challenging for middle-income families, many of whom postponed trips during Eid Al Fitr and are now considering Eid Al Adha or late summer travel instead.
“Families are waiting not only for lower fares, but also for geopolitical stability,” Sudeesh added. “If the political situation improves and there is a lasting peace agreement, bookings will recover very quickly.”
Rashid Abbas, Managing Director of Arooha Travels, said UAE travellers are cautiously optimistic following recent signs of regional calm, but overall confidence has yet to fully return.
“Over the last two to three days, there have been no major incidents, which is generating some positive sentiment,” Abbas said. “People are hoping things stabilise within a week. Once that happens, booking momentum could pick up quickly.”
Summer bookings trickle in
Travel agents say summer demand is beginning to come in gradually, rather than in the strong surge typically seen at this time of year. While annual leave plans are being made and enquiries are steadily rising, many bookings remain unconfirmed.
“Summer bookings are coming slowly,” Babu said. “Holiday enquiries and annual vacation requests have started. People are asking, comparing prices, checking options—but many are not yet pressing confirm.”
One segment seeing strong growth despite airfare concerns is outbound visa demand, particularly for Europe.
“European Schengen visa enquiries have increased significantly,” Babu said. “In fact, we have had to reassign two to three staff members from other departments to visa processing just to manage the surge.”
Some travellers are still booking
However, higher-income UAE residents continue to secure summer holidays, particularly to Europe and parts of Asia, while middle-income households are holding back until airfares become more affordable.
“We are still seeing strong movement to Japan, Sri Lanka, and Schengen destinations,” Abbas said. “Those who can afford the current fares are still travelling. The hesitation is mainly among price-sensitive travellers.”
Demand for CIS destinations, however, has dropped sharply, making it one of the weakest-performing outbound markets this season.
Despite short-term disruptions, the long-term outlook for aviation remains strong. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global passenger demand will more than double by 2050, driven by a growing middle class and expanding connectivity in emerging markets.
“The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director-General. “Under all our modelled scenarios, demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century.”
For now, however, UAE travel demand remains constrained by strong consumer interest and limited airline capacity.
“If there is a permanent ceasefire within the next week or two, supply can recover quickly,” Babu said. “The UAE market has the capability to restore volumes fast. Demand is already there—people want to travel.”
Still, airlines warn that relief may not come soon. Carriers including Air India, Delta Air Lines, Air New Zealand, and Cathay Pacific have already increased fuel surcharges or reduced flights due to the jet fuel squeeze. Analysts say fare hikes and cancellations could continue into the peak summer season unless supply disruptions ease.
For UAE residents, this means travel may remain expensive for several months.
