Strong demand, rising fuel prices, and reduced flight availability are driving airfares significantly higher.
Dubai: Strong travel demand, higher jet fuel prices, and limited flight capacity are driving a sharp increase in airfares, with industry experts warning that elevated prices could persist for months.
Passengers departing from the Dubai are already experiencing the impact, as last-minute ticket prices rise significantly above pre-disruption levels.
Outbound fares from Dubai have increased sharply compared to just two months ago, with return tickets on some routes seeing substantial spikes. For example, a return flight from Dubai to Mumbai for travel this week is now priced at Dh4,230, compared to Dh730 less than 60 days earlier.
Flights from Dubai to several international destinations have seen sharp increases in fares.
Return tickets to London have risen to Dh4,380, up from Dh1,209 two months ago. Similarly, fares have surged on other routes, including Barcelona at Dh6,380, Lisbon at Dh3,667, San Francisco at Dh7,140, and New York at Dh7,770.
Exorbitant fares
Even bookings made a week in advance remain expensive, with Dubai–Mumbai fares around Dh1,560 and Dubai–London at about Dh3,400.
Other international routes continue to show elevated prices, including Dubai–Barcelona at Dh6,380, Dubai–Lisbon at Dh3,667, Dubai–San Francisco at Dh7,140, and Dubai–New York at Dh7,770.
For travel between April 18 and 25, fares are slightly lower than last-minute bookings but still remain high. Dubai–Mumbai tickets are priced at Dh1,560, Dubai–Delhi at Dh2,731, and Dubai–London at Dh3,400, while Dubai–Barcelona flights are around Dh5,940.
From Abu Dhabi, fares are similarly elevated across major routes. New Delhi tickets cost about Dh2,460, Mumbai around Dh1,600, while long-haul travel remains expensive with Abu Dhabi–London at Dh4,750, Abu Dhabi–Barcelona at Dh5,570, and Abu Dhabi–New York at Dh5,740.
Demand spike
Travel demand continues to remain strong, particularly from the Dubai and wider UAE market.
Summer travel planning has already picked up, with high demand for Europe as Schengen visa appointments open. At the same time, routes to the Indian subcontinent are heavily booked due to school holidays and steady diaspora travel.
TP Sudheesh, General Manager at Deira Travels, told Gulf News that since the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, “some hope and confidence have returned to the industry,” adding that international airlines are actively assessing the situation to resume operations.
He added, “Some travellers have also begun preparing for the upcoming summer break. Schengen visa slots have opened, and they are now booking appointments and preparing their applications.”
Separately, Emirates announced that it is currently operating flights to more than 100 destinations worldwide.
Fuel shock
A key factor behind the rise in airfares is the sharp increase in jet fuel prices.
Fuel costs have surged from around $830 per tonne before the war to over $1,800 in early April, significantly raising airline operating expenses.
“It’s absolutely colossal,” said Pascal de Izaguirre, president of the French aviation federation, speaking to La Tribune.
Fuel, which typically accounts for up to 30 per cent of airline costs, has now risen to as much as 45 per cent of total expenses, pushing airlines to increase ticket prices.
According to S&P Global Platts, European jet fuel prices have nearly doubled compared to pre-war levels. The global average also rose 7.1 per cent last week to $209 per barrel, although oil prices later dropped by more than 10 per cent after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8.
While the truce has raised hopes of easing costs, refinery constraints and supply bottlenecks are expected to keep prices elevated in the near term.
The Gulf region, which supplies roughly half of Europe’s jet fuel via the Strait of Hormuz, remains a key factor in global fuel markets. Ongoing disruptions in the region have increased airline operating costs, creating logistical challenges and raising concerns over summer flight schedules.
Capacity cuts
Airlines are reducing flight capacity due to rising cost pressures and concerns over fuel supply risks.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General Willie Walsh said, “There’s no way airlines can absorb it,” adding that carriers are responding by raising fares and adjusting routes.
Limited flight frequencies, particularly across the Middle East, are further tightening supply and pushing prices higher. UAE carriers, including Emirates, Etihad Airways, flydubai, and Air Arabia, are operating reduced schedules through special air corridors.
While flights remain available, capacity is still well below pre-conflict levels, adding further pressure on fares. Analysts say high ticket prices are unlikely to ease in the near term.
“This is a combination of jet fuel prices rising due to supply issues, along with longer, re-routed flights through safer air corridors, meaning airlines have no choice but to increase fares,” said Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research.
He added that even if the conflict ends, elevated costs and supply constraints could continue for some time.
Outlook ahead
Despite a recent ceasefire that has slightly eased oil prices, jet fuel costs remain elevated due to ongoing refinery constraints and supply disruptions.
Experts warn that prices are likely to remain “historically elevated for months rather than weeks,” suggesting travellers should expect high airfares to persist through the summer season.
