Houthi threats and Hormuz tensions disrupt vital oil routes, pushing crude prices higher.
As tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend, the Iran-backed Houthis threatened to shut the Bab al-Mandab Strait—a critical oil shipping route that continues to handle crude flows from the region through Red Sea ports.
A recent Houthi statement underscored the risks facing global shipping.
“If Sanaa decides to close the Bab al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn (supernatural beings unseen to humans) will be utterly powerless to open it,” Houthi Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Ezzi said in a post on X, according to media reports.
“And therefore, it is best for Trump—and the complicit world—to immediately end all practices and policies that obstruct peace, and to show the respect required for the rights of our people and nation,” he added.
The warning came after a brief easing in market fears on Friday, when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial vessels during the ceasefire, only to reverse course on Saturday as military tensions and the US naval blockade continued. Iran’s military later signaled the strait was effectively “closed again,” renewing concerns across global energy markets.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is another crucial and narrow maritime chokepoint, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Any disruption there would threaten vital shipping routes for oil, LNG, and global trade between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
At just 26 to 30 km (16 to 19 miles) wide at its narrowest point—between the coasts of Yemen in Asia and Djibouti/Eritrea in Africa—the Bab al-Mandab Strait is actually narrower than the Strait of Hormuz.
Marine traffic through Bab al-Mandab is also heavily constrained. Because of the limited space, shipping is effectively restricted to two narrow 2-mile-wide channels—one for inbound vessels and one for outbound traffic—making it highly vulnerable to any military disruption.
Shooting incident raises alarm
On Saturday, the Indian government expressed “deep concern” over a shooting incident involving two Indian-flagged ships—Jag Arnav and Sanmar Herald—in the Strait of Hormuz.
The two vessels reportedly turned back after coming under fire from Iranian gunboats, as confusion intensified during the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. India later summoned Iran’s ambassador and urged safe passage for India-bound ships through the strategic waterway.
No injuries were reported, and the vessels were not damaged in the firing, according to marine tracking data.
A distress message from one of the tankers later emerged, highlighting the confusion during the incident.
In an audio clip shared by Tanker Trackers, a maritime intelligence firm that monitors global shipments, a crew member aboard the crude oil tanker Sanmar Herald is heard urgently trying to communicate with the Iranian navy during the firing.
“Sepah Navy, Sepah Navy. This is motor tanker Sanmar Herald. You gave me clearance to go. My name is second on your list. You are firing now. Let me turn back.”
Divided channel adds to shipping risk
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is further complicated by the presence of Perim Island, part of Yemen, which splits the passage into two separate channels.
The western channel, known as Dact-el-Mayun, is the main and deeper shipping route. At roughly 16 miles (25–26 km) wide, it handles most international tanker and container traffic moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
The eastern channel, called Bab Iskender or Alexander’s Strait, is much narrower and shallower—around 2 miles (3–5 km) wide—and is mainly used by smaller vessels and for local maritime traffic.
This divided structure makes the chokepoint especially vulnerable, as any military disruption or blockade in the main western channel could severely impact global shipping flows.
Crude oil prices rebound
Oil prices, which had fallen nearly 10% on Friday, rebounded early Monday as shipping through the region’s most sensitive chokepoints remained heavily restricted and the US Navy intercepted an Iranian vessel it accused of attempting to break the blockade.
The seizure revived fears of a wider regional escalation and a prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.
Traders who had initially bet on Friday that tensions might ease quickly are now reassessing the outlook, as renewed threats around both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab raise fresh concerns over global energy security.
Short-lived hope
Developments over the weekend suggest the market calm was short-lived, with Brent crude opening stronger on Monday morning.
“Iran reimposed its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after the US kept its blockade in place,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a Monday note.
Following the US seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel, doubts have also grown over the prospects for planned peace talks, raising fears that tensions could escalate further.
The Houthi threat to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait adds another major layer of risk for global energy markets.
Markets rattled
Any shutdown there would put even greater pressure on shipping routes already under strain and could disrupt Saudi oil shipments that had been rerouted to the Red Sea port of Yanbu after access through the Strait of Hormuz became restricted.
The result is a fast-moving energy crisis with two major chokepoints now in play.
Even short-lived disruptions can unsettle global shipping, drive up freight costs, and push crude prices sharply higher if markets believe the conflict is expanding rather than easing.
Key timeline: Bab al-Mandab Strait
November 14, 2023: Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi warned that the group would target Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
November 19, 2023: The Houthis seized the Galaxy Leader, an Israeli-owned, Japanese-operated cargo ship in the Red Sea, taking its crew to Hodeidah.
December 15, 2023: Houthis struck two Liberian-flagged tankers in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles toward Bab al-Mandab, hitting one vessel and damaging another.
December 23–26, 2023: The group launched missiles and drones in the southern Red Sea, including an attack on the MSC United VIII after repeated warnings.
February 22, 2024: The Houthis announced a formal ban on vessels owned by, or linked to, Israeli, British, or American entities in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea.
March 2, 2024: The cargo ship Rubymar sank in the Red Sea following a Houthi attack, becoming one of the clearest signs of the campaign’s economic impact.
April 2024: Houthi attacks resumed at near-daily frequency after a brief pause, including claims of strikes on Israel-linked shipping farther into the Indian Ocean.
2024 overall: Analysts said the Houthis carried out more than 100 attacks on commercial ships and warships since November 2023, effectively turning Bab al-Mandab into a zone of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) pressure.
2025: The pace of attacks eased significantly, but the threat remained serious enough to keep rerouting and insurance costs elevated.
March 2026: Houthi threats resurfaced as wider tensions involving Iran once again raised Red Sea shipping risks.
