Many of the vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz did so as so-called “dark” shipments, meaning their tracking systems were switched off, making their movements harder to monitor.
About 90 ships, including oil tankers, have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war, with Iran continuing to export millions of barrels of oil despite the waterway being effectively restricted, according to maritime and trade data platforms.
Many of these vessels were so-called “dark” transits, operating with tracking systems switched off to evade Western sanctions and oversight, and are likely linked to Iran, Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported. More recently, ships with ties to India and Pakistan have also successfully navigated the strait amid intensified diplomatic negotiations.
As crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, US President Donald Trump urged allies and trade partners to deploy warships and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to stabilize global oil markets and bring prices down.
Most shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial waterway for global oil and gas transport that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude—has been halted since early March following the outbreak of war, with about 20 vessels reportedly attacked in the area.
Despite this, Iran has managed to export more than 16 million barrels of oil since the start of March, according to trade data and analytics firm Kpler. Due to Western sanctions and the associated risks, China has emerged as the largest buyer of Iranian crude.
Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic said there has been “continued resilience” in Iran’s oil export volumes despite heightened regional tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting Tehran’s ability to maintain shipments even as most shipping traffic has effectively stalled.
Consulting firm Reddal’s client director Kun Cao noted that Iran has been able to profit from oil sales and “preserve its own export artery” by leveraging its control over the strategic chokepoint, allowing its crude exports to continue flowing even as other Gulf producers face restrictions.
Analysts say Iran’s oil export estimates from trade data largely align with observed maritime traffic patterns in the Strait of Hormuz.
This reflects how tracking data on ship movements and export volumes correspond with reports that Tehran continues to send out substantial crude shipments even as overall traffic through the strategic waterway has been disrupted
At least 89 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 15, including 16 oil tankers, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. This marks a decline from roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the outbreak of war. More than one-fifth of the 89 vessels were believed to be affiliated with Iran, while others were linked to China and Greece.
Other ships have also successfully navigated the strait. Among them, the Pakistan-flagged crude oil tanker Karachi, operated by the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, transited the waterway on Sunday, Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported.
Shariq Amin, a spokesman for the Pakistan Port Trust, declined to confirm the exact route taken by the MT Karachi but assured that the vessel would safely reach Pakistan.
The India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers Shivalik and Nanda Devi, both operated by the state-owned Shipping Corporation of India, also transited the Strait of Hormuz around March 13–14, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. LPG transported by these vessels serves as a primary cooking fuel for millions of households in India.
ndia’s Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, told the Financial Times that the two LPG carriers were able to transit the Strait of Hormuz following diplomatic talks with Iran. Meanwhile, Iraq is also negotiating with Tehran to allow Iraqi oil tankers safe passage, according to its state-run news agency.
“Vessels may be transiting with at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. He added that Iran may have effectively created a safe corridor, with some ships passing close to the Iranian coast.
Some vessels transiting near or through the Strait of Hormuz were found to have declared themselves as China-linked or reported having exclusively Chinese crews, according to an earlier analysis by ship-tracking platform MarineTraffic. Analysts say this strategy was likely intended to reduce the risk of attack by leveraging China’s closer diplomatic ties with Iran.
Since the outbreak of the Iran war, oil prices have surged more than 40%, climbing above $100 per barrel. Tehran has also warned that it will not allow “even a single liter of oil” destined for the U.S., Israel, or their allies to pass through the strait.
In an effort to stabilize global oil prices, the U.S. announced that it was allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday.
The U.S. carried out airstrikes on military sites on Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran’s oil network and exports, though President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s oil infrastructure had been left untouched for the time being.
The recent vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the waterway is not entirely “closed,” according to Kun Cao, client director at consulting firm Reddal. “It is better understood as closed selectively against some traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements,” he said.
However, if Iran aims to “inflict pain through higher energy prices,” the number of tankers it allows to pass through the strait may remain very limited, noted Dutch bank ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a research note.
