Rainfall Could Be Intense if Concentrated Over a Few Days, Expert Warns.
Dubai: The UAE could receive above-average rainfall as the El Niño climate phenomenon intensifies, with the possibility of heavy to exceptionally heavy downpours if the additional precipitation is concentrated over a few days rather than spread across several months.
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, said the phenomenon could significantly influence rainfall patterns across the UAE and the wider Arabian Peninsula.
He explained that the UAE typically receives between 100mm and 120mm of rainfall annually, but El Niño could push precipitation levels above this range. The impact, however, would depend largely on how the rainfall is distributed over time.
If the additional precipitation falls within a short period, some areas could experience heavy or exceptionally heavy downpours. If spread over a longer period, the increase in rainfall may be less noticeable.
Al Jarwan noted that some areas had recorded more than 200mm of rainfall in a single month in previous years, highlighting how precipitation can become concentrated over relatively short periods.
El Niño could reach unprecedented intensity
Al Jarwan said El Niño influences vast regions worldwide, including the UAE and the Arabian Peninsula, making it a phenomenon of international concern.
Citing projections attributed to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), he said the average El Niño temperature anomaly between October and December could reach +3.7°C, peaking in December. This would exceed the previous record of +2.6°C recorded during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, he said.
According to Al Jarwan, there is a 38 per cent probability that the developing phenomenon could become a historic event, surpassing the intensity of any previously recorded El Niño.
Thunderstorms and strong winds across Gulf region
Meanwhile, Al Jarwan said GCC countries were experiencing unsettled weather as a low-pressure system, accompanied by a relatively cold air mass, brought rain-bearing thunderclouds across the region.
Several areas have reported moderate to heavy thunderstorms, accompanied by flash flooding, hail and strong winds that have stirred up dust and sand.
Conditions in the Arabian Gulf have also deteriorated, with wind speeds ranging from 20 to 45km/h and exceeding 50km/h near thunderstorms.
Wave heights have exceeded two metres in some areas, resulting in moderate to rough sea conditions.
The combination of heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas underscores the potential risks posed by the unsettled weather, particularly in areas prone to flash flooding and reduced visibility.
