Brent tops $106 as Houthi attacks and uncertain US-Iran talks fuel market concerns.
The US-Iran conflict continues to trigger volatility across oil prices, financial markets and regional security, as investors assess tentative diplomatic engagement alongside renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
In the UAE, the impact continues to be felt across the aviation, shipping and energy sectors.
The country is strengthening alternative trade and energy export routes as part of efforts to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, flights operated by Iranian airlines have been suspended from September 24 until further notice.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports remain operational, although airlines continue to adjust their schedules in response to heightened regional risks.
Iranian airlines suspended
The suspension of Iranian airline operations is the latest significant aviation measure announced by the UAE.
The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) said the restriction applies to Iranian carriers operating flights to and from the country and came into effect on September 24. No date has been announced for when the suspension will be lifted.
The decision followed a US ban affecting Iranian airlines operating at airports in several countries. The GCAA said it would continue monitoring developments and provide further updates as the situation evolves.
UAE airports remain operational
Airports across the UAE continue to operate, with scheduled flights still arriving and departing despite ongoing regional uncertainty. Dubai’s Al Maktoum International Airport flight-status system shows services scheduled for Friday, including flights to destinations such as Moscow and Makhachkala.
However, passengers should be aware that individual flights may still face delays or cancellations at short notice.
Airline operations also remain uneven, with several international carriers yet to resume their UAE routes as they continue to assess regional security and operating conditions.
The airline’s flight-status system currently shows regular booking availability on several routes, including Abu Dhabi-Delhi services on September 25.
Etihad’s official flight-status page also recorded a technical delay affecting Beirut flights EY583 and EY584 on September 24, highlighting that not every flight disruption is necessarily linked to the ongoing regional conflict.
flydubai
flydubai continues to operate a reduced flight schedule, with the airline cautioning passengers that some journeys may take longer due to rerouting and extended transit times.
Travellers are advised to check their latest flight status and review the airline’s operational updates before travelling to the airport.
The airline’s flight-status system currently shows regular booking availability on several routes, including Abu Dhabi-Delhi services on September 25.
Etihad’s official flight-status page also recorded a technical delay affecting Beirut flights EY583 and EY584 on September 24, highlighting that not every flight disruption is necessarily linked to the ongoing regional conflict.
flydubai
flydubai continues to operate a reduced flight schedule, with the airline cautioning passengers that some journeys may take longer due to rerouting and extended transit times.
Travellers are advised to check their latest flight status and review the airline’s operational updates before travelling to the airport.
International airline recovery remains uneven
International airline operations to the UAE continue to recover at different rates. While some carriers have resumed services, others are maintaining temporary suspensions or reduced schedules to Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Current published schedules indicate:
- Air France: Dubai flights remain suspended until October 13.
- Wizz Air: Dubai services are expected to resume on October 25, followed by Abu Dhabi flights on October 27.
- Singapore Airlines: Dubai operations remain suspended through October 24.
- KLM: Dubai services are suspended through October 24.
- ITA Airways: Flights to Dubai remain suspended through October 24.
- SWISS: Dubai services are suspended through October 24.
- Eurowings: Dubai flights remain suspended through October 24, with services currently scheduled to restart on November 1.
- Air Canada: Dubai flights are cancelled until mid-January 2027.
- Philippine Airlines: The Manila-Dubai route is scheduled to return on October 2, initially with four flights a week.
- Turkish Airlines: Services to Dubai and Abu Dhabi have resumed, while flights to Tehran remain suspended.
All scheduled restart dates remain subject to changes in operational requirements and regional security conditions.
What does this mean for UAE residents?
For people living in the UAE, the evolving regional situation can have the most immediate impact on fuel and energy prices, flight schedules, shipping and logistics, the cost and availability of imported goods, and financial markets.
Fuel: Sustained increases in global crude oil prices could eventually influence petrol and diesel costs. However, the timing and extent of any change will depend on the UAE’s fuel-pricing mechanism and how long elevated oil prices persist.
Flights: UAE airports and airlines continue to operate, but flight schedules remain vulnerable to changes in regional airspace and security conditions. Separately, the UAE suspended flights operated by Iranian airlines to and from the country on Thursday until further notice, following a US ban affecting Iranian carriers.
Imported goods: Prolonged disruption to shipping routes in the Gulf could push up freight, insurance and transportation expenses. If higher logistics costs persist, some of those increases could eventually be reflected in the prices of imported products.
Financial markets: Higher oil prices can support revenues for energy producers but may also add to global inflationary pressures. Persistent inflation could contribute to interest rates remaining elevated for longer, potentially affecting borrowing costs, currencies and investment markets.
Shipping: Vessel traffic visible through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels. However, AIS tracking data does not provide a complete picture, as some vessels may switch off their transponders.
The big picture
Oil markets are currently weighing two competing forces.
On one side, Saudi Arabia is restoring operations along its East-West pipeline and increasing crude movements through alternative export routes. These measures provide some protection against the effects of a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tanker-tracking data also indicated a sharp rebound in Saudi crude exports during September, suggesting efforts to maintain global oil flows despite continuing regional uncertainty.
On the other hand, Iran continues to hold considerable influence over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while escalating Houthi activity poses an additional risk to Red Sea shipping and Saudi export infrastructure around Yanbu.
Together, these pressures have created a highly sensitive oil market. Signs of progress in diplomatic negotiations can quickly ease supply concerns and pull prices lower, while fresh attacks or disruptions can trigger equally sharp increases.
For UAE residents, the impact of the conflict now extends well beyond military and diplomatic developments. Its consequences are increasingly being felt through oil prices, flight operations, shipping and logistics costs, inflation and financial markets.
5 developments to watch
- Further attacks on tankers or Gulf export terminals
A successful strike affecting vessels or key oil facilities could disrupt supplies and increase crude prices and marine insurance costs. - Extended restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz
A prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes could place additional pressure on global oil and gas supplies. - Damage to Saudi Arabia’s alternative export routes
Further attacks affecting the East-West pipeline or facilities at Yanbu could limit Saudi Arabia’s ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. - Escalation of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea or around Yanbu
Additional strikes on shipping or energy infrastructure could increase pressure on Saudi Arabia’s alternative crude export network at a time when Hormuz traffic remains disrupted. - Setbacks in US-Iran diplomatic efforts
Oil markets remain highly responsive to developments in negotiations. Signs of progress could ease concerns over Hormuz, while a breakdown in talks could renew fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
