Experts warn of intensified heat and rising humidity as the likelihood of a “super El Niño” increases.
Dubai: A strong climate system forming thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific Ocean may soon affect weather patterns across the UAE, increasing the likelihood of hotter temperatures, higher humidity, and a more active autumn storm season.
The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has projected a 98% probability of El Niño conditions from July to November 2026, after sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific crossed the threshold that defines the phenomenon.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.
This warming weakens the trade winds that normally push warm water westward across the Pacific, leading to shifts in global weather patterns that can affect rainfall, temperature, and storm activity far beyond the region where the phenomenon begins.
Although El Niño develops far from the Arabian Peninsula, it can still influence weather patterns across large parts of the world. In the UAE, its impacts are not expected to be as extreme as in regions like South America or Asia, but they may still be noticeable.
Could rainfall increase?
Possibly. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has suggested that temperatures and rainfall in the second half of 2026 are expected to range from near-normal to above-normal levels, reflecting growing confidence that El Niño conditions will strengthen through the year.
Historically, some El Niño events have been linked to improved rainfall chances across parts of the Arabian Peninsula, especially in autumn. Climate experts note that the phenomenon can influence large-scale weather systems affecting the region, raising the likelihood of thunderstorms and occasional periods of unsettled weather later in the year.
However, increased rainfall does not necessarily mean continuous wet conditions. In the UAE, rain typically comes in short, intense bursts rather than prolonged spells.
“The impact on the UAE is generally indirect but noticeable,” said Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomical Society and member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences.
He noted that El Niño years are often associated with above-average temperatures across the Gulf region, higher humidity along coastal areas, and occasional shifts in prevailing wind patterns.
What about tropical cyclones?
The greater concern could arise later in the year.
Past El Niño events have been associated with increased tropical activity in the Arabian Sea during the autumn months, raising the likelihood of cyclones and severe weather systems affecting parts of Oman, Yemen, and, at times, the wider Gulf region.
Meteorologists also say El Niño can strengthen atmospheric disturbances and improve rainfall chances across parts of the Arabian Peninsula. However, they stress that cyclone formation depends on multiple factors, and cannot be attributed to El Niño alone.
Could this become a “super El Niño”?
Global forecasters are increasingly monitoring the developing system closely.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates an 80% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August, with probabilities rising above 90% by November. Several climate models also indicate the event could intensify further into 2027.
Satellite data has already identified a large pool of unusually warm subsurface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, with temperatures in some areas exceeding seasonal averages by up to 6°C. Scientists say such heat build-ups are a key driver of stronger El Niño development.
Some forecasting centres have even suggested the possibility of a “super El Niño” forming over the coming year. The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 67% chance that conditions could significantly intensify as 2027 approaches.
If that occurs, global temperatures could rise further, potentially making 2027 one of the hottest years on record.
What are the wider implications?
El Niño is known to intensify existing climate trends, including global warming. This can increase the chances of record-breaking heat, extreme rainfall, drought conditions, and disruptions to food production.
In the Middle East — one of the world’s most water-scarce regions — such shifts could add further pressure on water resources, energy demand, and agricultural supply chains.
However, the UAE’s significant investment in desalination capacity, infrastructure resilience, and climate adaptation measures helps reduce its vulnerability compared with many other countries.
That said, the emergence of El Niño does not mean the UAE is heading for a climate disaster, nor does it guarantee severe storms or unprecedented rainfall.
What it does indicate is a shift in probabilities toward warmer conditions, higher humidity, and a potentially more active weather pattern in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
