School reopenings and easing concerns boost arrivals, while limited flights keep travel supply tight.
Dubai: UAE travel agents are reporting a sharp rise in inbound travel demand over the next two weeks as schools reopen, with thousands of residents returning after weeks of disruption caused by regional tensions and flight cancellations.
The rebound follows a volatile period for the aviation sector, during which airspace closures, rerouting, and reduced airline capacity linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict had slowed travel flows into and out of the UAE since late March.
“This week and next, we are seeing strong traffic into the UAE,” said TP Sudheesh, General Manager at Deira Travels. “People are hopeful that further fighting will not continue and that the ceasefire will hold. With schools reopening, bookings have picked up significantly.”
He added that a backlog of travellers who were unable to return earlier is now driving the surge.
“A lot of people who were meant to return between late March and early April are now coming back in large numbers,” TP Sudheesh said. “Families who travelled home when schools shifted online are returning, including workers such as bus drivers who had taken a break. In the next week, there will be a huge incoming rush.”
Supply still struggling to catch up
While demand is rebounding quickly, airline capacity remains constrained, keeping fares elevated and limiting travel options for passengers.
“Demand is strong, but supply has not fully returned yet,” said Raheesh Babu, COO of Musafir.com. “For example, IndiGo was operating around 40 daily flights earlier, but that dropped to about 11. It is now gradually increasing, but recovery is slow.”
He added that airlines are restoring routes in phases, with more capacity expected from early May.
“Turkish and European carriers are likely to resume more services around early May, with fuller capacity by May 5,” said Raheesh Babu. “UAE carriers like Emirates and Air Arabia are also scaling up operations.”
However, limited seat availability continues to push up ticket prices.
“Fares are still high, starting from around Dh2,000 and above on many routes,” he added. “There is no choice but to book early given the limited availability.”
Airlines rebuild networks cautiously
The aviation sector has been navigating disruptions caused by the regional conflict, which led to partial airspace closures and forced airlines to reroute flights, increasing costs and reducing flight frequencies.
Even as tensions ease at intervals, the recovery remains uneven.
“We cannot say that normal travel has fully resumed yet, but we are seeing demand grow consistently,” said Safeer Mahmood, General Manager of Smart Travel Group.
“Airlines are operating a good number of flights, especially UAE-based carriers,” he added. “Air Arabia announcing services to destinations like Baku, Almaty, Tbilisi, Tashkent, and Yerevan from May 1 shows that leisure travel is gradually returning.”
Leisure demand builds
Alongside inbound travel, agents are also seeing a steady return in outbound leisure demand, particularly for short-haul destinations.
“There has been strong interest in leisure travel around Eid, with packages ranging from 100 to 150 bookings for destinations like Georgia and Baku,” said Raheesh Babu, adding that more routes are expected to reopen by the end of May.
At the same time, airlines are increasingly relying on alternative flight paths and special corridors to maintain operations.
“UAE carriers are operating most of their flights through adjusted routes as some airspaces remain restricted,” said TP Sudheesh. “This is leading to limited operations overall and a continuing supply challenge.”
Outlook: busy weeks ahead
Travel agents expect the next two weeks to remain busy as pent-up demand continues and more residents return to the UAE ahead of the new school term.
“Inbound demand will remain strong through mid-May,” said Raheesh Babu. “The last two to three weeks have already been busy, and that trend is continuing.”
For now, the sector is balancing a sharp rebound in demand with a slower recovery in airline capacity — a dynamic likely to shape travel patterns in the UAE in the weeks ahead.
Middle East carriers are facing the strongest pressure as geopolitical instability, fuel volatility, and airspace restrictions continue to reshape the sector’s recovery path.
For both passengers and airlines, the coming months are expected to bring a more fragile operating environment—not because demand has weakened, but because the infrastructure supporting global air travel remains under strain.
