Four top investors explain how to invest Dh10,000 in 2026 without chasing risk
Dubai: Dh10,000 can be enough to give investors exposure to the forces shaping global markets in 2026. Lower interest rates, heavy investment in artificial intelligence, uneven equity valuations and persistent geopolitical risks are setting the tone for a year that may reward patience. For retail investors, the key challenge lies in deciding where to take calculated risks and where to preserve capital.
Market strategists remain broadly constructive, though few advocate concentration or aggressive directional bets. That consensus reflects a supportive macro backdrop alongside stretched valuations and limited visibility on earnings, inflation and policy. In such an environment, portfolio construction matters as much as asset selection — particularly for small-ticket investors who have little room for large drawdowns.
Against this backdrop, we spoke with senior investment leaders from the region to better understand the options.
Time horizon defines everything
The starting point, according to Emirates NBD, is clarity on how long capital can remain invested. “It’s all about time horizon, which determines the level of risk-taking,” said Maurice Gravier, Group Chief Investment Officer. Over shorter periods, he noted that money market instruments in AED remain attractive, offering close to a 4% annualised return and providing stability when flexibility is needed.
Longer time horizons, however, allow for broader diversification. Over a three-year period, Gravier outlined an allocation that combines money markets, global bond ETFs, emerging market equity ETFs, developed market equities and gold ETFs. The emphasis, he said, is on defensive balance rather than directional conviction.
“The last thing to do is to go ‘all in’ on one asset class, one stock, or even one ‘factor’,” he said, adding that blending cyclical and defensive assets enables investors to adjust exposure calmly as market conditions evolve.
“Passive ETFs are particularly relevant,” said Maurice Gravier, Group Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD. “They are publicly listed, highly liquid and easy to trade, offering instant exposure to diversified indices at very reasonable management costs and with a low entry threshold.
“Combining three to five such ETFs with Dh10,000 is entirely feasible and highly effective, potentially delivering around 90 per cent of the expected returns and portfolio quality typically associated with much larger institutional portfolios.”
Maurice Gravier
Group Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD
That emphasis on structure is echoed across the investment community. Heading into 2026, the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive, with lower interest rates and ongoing fiscal stimulus still filtering through the system. At the same time, valuations have become more stretched and visibility around growth, inflation and policy has narrowed.
Equities remain favoured, but concentration risk rises
Global equities continue to anchor return expectations for 2026, underpinned by strong earnings growth linked to investment in and adoption of artificial intelligence. According to UBS Global Wealth Management, the combination of AI innovation, fiscal spending and easier monetary policy supports a constructive outlook for risk assets.
“Strong AI capex and adoption should fuel further equity gains in 2026,” said Tilmann Kolb, Emerging Market Strategist at the firm’s Chief Investment Office.
Diversification remains central, both for capturing returns and managing downside risk. Including high-grade bonds and gold, Kolb noted, can improve a portfolio’s risk-return profile even after recent market swings.
The case for equities is also echoed at Standard Chartered. Ayesha Abbas, Managing Director and Head of Affluent and Wealth Solutions for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the UAE, expects risk assets to remain supported by “AI-led earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and resilient macro fundamentals.” She cautioned, however, that gains are unlikely to be evenly distributed, making diversification especially important for smaller portfolios.
A powerful combination of AI innovation, fiscal spending and easing monetary policy is expected to provide a benign backdrop for the global economy, potentially ushering in a new phase of growth. Continued investment in and adoption of AI should drive further equity gains in 2026, while resilient global growth and looser monetary conditions are likely to support equity markets more broadly.
Tilmann Kolb
Emerging Market Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office
Sectors and themes shaping 2026 returns
While broad exposure remains important, investors continue to identify clear sectoral opportunities. Emerging markets feature prominently, particularly China, where attractive valuations and policy support are converging with advances in artificial intelligence. Technology stands out, alongside Japanese banks, European defence stocks and global mining, according to Maurice Gravier.
China’s technology sector also features strongly in UBS’s outlook. New Chinese AI models have demonstrated leadership, while policy support continues to strengthen the broader ecosystem. Efforts to localise chip production, alongside growth in robotics, autonomous systems and advanced driver assistance technologies, place China in a favourable position, said Tilmann Kolb.
Beyond Asia, UBS favours utilities and healthcare in the US, industrials and technology in Europe, and banks globally.
“As we look into 2026, investors should prioritise diversification of their portfolios and disciplined positioning to manage risks, rather than chasing a single theme or asset class. Our outlook expects risky assets – particularly equities – to continue preforming well, driven by strong earnings growth in areas such as AI, supportive monetary and fiscal policy, and resilient macro fundamentals”.
Ayesha Abbas
Managing Director and Head of Affluent and Wealth Solutions
According to Abbas, AI-linked equities remain an important part of portfolios, though income-generating assets such as emerging market bonds can help diversify away from a US-centric outlook. Gold and other diversifiers continue to play a stabilising role amid persistent uncertainty. For smaller investors, she emphasised that accessing these themes through diversified strategies is often more resilient and cost-efficient than selecting individual sectors.
Suvo Sarkar, Vice Chairman of Wealthbrix Capital Partners, expects both fixed income and equities to deliver returns ranging from the high single digits to the high teens. Sectors with strong returns on equity and earnings growth — including US technology and healthcare — remain favoured, alongside local-currency emerging market debt, supported by expectations of a weaker US dollar and improving inflation trends.
Risks remain despite a supportive backdrop
Despite the constructive outlook, investors remain alert to risks that could unsettle markets. Expectations around artificial intelligence sit high on that watchlist: any signs of slowing investment or weaker-than-expected monetisation could trigger a broader sell-off. Inflation also remains a potential spoiler. While tariffs have so far unfolded largely as expected, second-round effects could keep price pressures elevated and limit the scope for interest-rate cuts.
“Over the last 25 years, despite three major market drawdowns, a balanced portfolio returned 7.5% p.a. (in USD), and a growth portfolio over 10% p.a. In 2025 a balanced portfolio returned 18%, with stocks recovering well from the liberation day April selloff. Investors should be diversified. Quality matters, whether stocks or bonds – we advise to buy companies with strong balance sheets and avoid highly leveraged companies”.
Suvo Sarkar
Vice Chairman of Wealthbrix Capital Partners:
Credit markets present another vulnerability. Tight spreads and looser lending standards have raised concerns around both public and private credit, while rising government debt has already sparked bouts of yield volatility in major markets.
Political risk also features prominently. Focus remains on the US labour market and domestic politics, with mid-term elections expected to inject volatility into markets later in the year. Geopolitical tensions have so far had limited market impact, though that assessment depends on events remaining regional rather than global.
One rule matters most for small investors
For investors starting with limited capital, financial discipline matters the most. Diversification is now accessible to everyone through ETFs and low-cost funds, allowing investors to replicate institutional-style portfolios without outsized risk.
“Passive ETFs are particularly relevant,” Gravier said, highlighting their liquidity, low entry costs and ability to deliver broad market exposure. Kolb underscored the importance of having a clear strategy and the discipline to stick with it through periods of volatility. Abbas cautioned that staying on the sidelines can often pose a greater risk than market swings, while Sarkar advised blending safer assets with global equity ETFs rather than concentrating bets.
Taken together, a balanced mix of equities, income assets and diversifiers — aligned with an investor’s time horizon and risk tolerance — offers the best chance of steady compounding in a year likely to reward patience over bravado.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
